Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 30 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel472 kmRest days7 · 1.8Matches / 14d2 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union BerlinBayer Leverkusen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 79
42 AttackIn forecast 87
41 DefenceIn forecast 79
38 Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinBayer Leverkusen
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 2.19
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.48
50% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
12.83 ShotsContext 19.67
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17
35% On target shareContext 31%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.83
64% Box shareContext 71%
7% ConversionContext 14%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.33
15.67 Shots allowedContext 11.50
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
4.20 BlocksContext 2.67
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20
56% Save rateContext 52%
44% PossessionIn forecast 58%
359 PassesContext 539
268 Accurate passesContext 470
75% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.58 Team ratingContext 7.02
11.67 FoulsContext 12.33
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.35
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
70% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.30 ShotsContext 18.50
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60
38% On target shareContext 36%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 13.30
63% Box shareContext 71%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.89
14.50 Shots allowedContext 12.20
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
4.13 BlocksContext 3.10
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
57% Save rateContext 63%
45% PossessionIn forecast 58%
372 PassesContext 537
285 Accurate passesContext 470
77% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.74 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.30 FoulsContext 11.90
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,849 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest1.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel472 km1,208 km in 14d
Schedule load56%High
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5High · 56
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoYes
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 28 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km472 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,849 km1,208 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 42 / 4 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Bayer Leverkusen · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.67
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinBayer Leverkusen
SV Elversberg W 1–0 H L 2–3 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 Union Berlin wins3 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game0.40 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored20% Clean sheets30% · 70%
  • 5 Sep 2026Bayer Leverkusen4–0Union Berlin
  • 21 Feb 2026Union Berlin1–0Bayer Leverkusen
  • 4 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0Union Berlin
  • 12 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–0Union Berlin
  • 30 Nov 2024Union Berlin1–2Bayer Leverkusen
  • 6 Apr 2024Union Berlin0–1Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 0.832.67
Conceded per game 2.831.50
Match goals 3.674.17
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games66
Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 1.502.40
Conceded per game 2.301.30
Match goals 3.803.70
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 80%60%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.007.33
Corners conceded5.833.33
Match total9.8310.6610.72
Over 8.583% 5/650% 3/6
Over 9.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 10.533% 2/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.501.33
Opponent cards2.002.17
Match total4.503.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/633% 2/6
Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.106.70
Corners conceded6.503.50
Match total10.6010.2010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 9.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.20
Opponent cards1.901.80
Match total4.103.003.51
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Schalke 04 Jan 3014:30 SC Freiburg SC Paderborn 07 Jan 3014:30 FSV Mainz 05 Hamburger SV Jan 3014:30 Borussia Dortmund 1899 Hoffenheim Jan 3014:30 FC Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 3014:30 RB Leipzig Werder Bremen Jan 3014:30 Union Berlin Bayer Leverkusen Jan 3014:30 1.FC Köln VfB Stuttgart Jan 3014:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Mönchengladbach Jan 3014:30