Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 23 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel191 kmRest days1.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
SV Elversberg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and SV Elversberg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenSV Elversberg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 42
87 AttackIn forecast 44
79 DefenceIn forecast 37
94 Form indexContext 60
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

SV Elversberg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenSV Elversberg
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.45
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.17
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.55
100% Scored inContext 67%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
19.67 ShotsContext 11.17
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
31% On target shareContext 42%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 8.17
71% Box shareContext 72%
14% ConversionContext 18%
1.33 OffsidesContext 3.20
11.50 Shots allowedContext 22.00
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
2.67 BlocksContext 8.50
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17
52% Save rateContext 59%
58% PossessionIn forecast 44%
539 PassesContext 382
470 Accurate passesContext 303
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.82
12.33 FoulsContext 11.67
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.17
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
100% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
18.50 ShotsContext 11.20
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
36% On target shareContext 38%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
71% Box shareContext 66%
13% ConversionContext 21%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.86
12.20 Shots allowedContext 16.90
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
3.10 BlocksContext 6.33
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
63% Save rateContext 59%
58% PossessionIn forecast 48%
537 PassesContext 387
470 Accurate passesContext 309
88% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.90 FoulsContext 11.50
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest1.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,617 km in 14d
Schedule load55%High
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
SV Elversberg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel191 km1,121 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
  • D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen SV Elversberg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 55Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km191 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,617 km1,121 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 41 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one5.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SV Elversberg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
SV Elversberg · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBayer LeverkusenSV Elversberg
FC Augsburg D 2–2 A W 4–3 H
Union Berlin W 4–0 H L 0–1 A
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Bayer Leverkusen wins0 draws1 SV Elversberg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 29 Aug 2026SV Elversberg3–2Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenSV ElversbergForecast
Scored per game 2.672.00
Conceded per game 1.501.83
Match goals 4.173.83
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%67%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games66
Bayer LeverkusenSV ElversbergForecast
Scored per game 2.402.00
Conceded per game 1.301.83
Match goals 3.703.83
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 70%67%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 60%67%
Clean sheets 40%17%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenSV ElversbergLeague
Corners
Corners won7.333.67
Corners conceded3.338.00
Match total10.6611.6710.72
Over 8.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 9.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.332.17
Opponent cards2.171.83
Match total3.504.003.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/633% 2/6
Bayer LeverkusenSV ElversbergLeague
Corners
Corners won6.704.00
Corners conceded3.506.20
Match total10.2010.2010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.201.90
Opponent cards1.802.30
Match total3.004.203.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
5 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen SC Freiburg Jan 2314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach RB Leipzig Jan 2314:30 1899 Hoffenheim 1.FC Köln Jan 2314:30 Bayer Leverkusen SV Elversberg Jan 2314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Union Berlin Jan 2314:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayern München Jan 2314:30 FC Schalke 04 FC Augsburg Jan 2314:30 Hamburger SV Borussia Dortmund Jan 2314:30 SC Paderborn 07 FSV Mainz 05 Jan 2314:30