Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 23 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

VS— Compare

Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played WWWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel284 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 4

Real contextStrength only

Hamburger SV—%

Draw—%

Borussia Dortmund—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Hamburg)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Hamburger SV 3 Wins in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

40 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

37 AttackIn forecast 69

43 DefenceIn forecast 80

70 Form indexContext 61

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

50% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 67%

11.00 ShotsContext 15.17

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17

33% On target shareContext 34%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

56% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

19.17 Shots allowedContext 11.67

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.33 BlocksContext 2.80

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

62% Save rateContext 78%

40% PossessionIn forecast 55%

346 PassesContext 530

270 Accurate passesContext 450

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.54 Team ratingContext 7.04

14.17 FoulsContext 11.17

12.83 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.60 ShotsContext 14.70

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

35% On target shareContext 39%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

59% Box shareContext 72%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.63

16.40 Shots allowedContext 11.20

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

4.56 BlocksContext 2.78

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

64% Save rateContext 77%

40% PossessionIn forecast 54%

348 PassesContext 530

275 Accurate passesContext 454

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.40 FoulsContext 10.90

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,271 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Borussia Dortmund WWDLD

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel284 km1,447 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan	3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 19 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,271 km	1,447 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	2 / 4 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1G. Kobel(G)

4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson

14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri

9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
1899 Hoffenheim	W 3–2 A	W 3–2 A
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Hamburger SV wins1 draws2 Borussia Dortmund wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

29 Aug 2026Borussia Dortmund2–0Hamburger SV
21 Mar 2026Borussia Dortmund3–2Hamburger SV
8 Nov 2025Hamburger SV1–1Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund
Scored per game	1.00	1.83
Conceded per game	2.50	0.67
Match goals	3.50	2.50
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	67%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund
Scored per game	1.30	1.90
Conceded per game	2.10	0.90
Match goals	3.40	2.80
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	4.83
Corners conceded	6.00	4.67
Match total	9.83	9.50	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	2.67
Opponent cards	2.17	2.00
Match total	3.50	4.67	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	50% 3/6

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	5.80
Corners conceded	6.40	4.50
Match total	10.00	10.30	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.60	1.50
Match total	4.10	3.70	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.