Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 23 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel232 kmRest days1.9 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 3
Real contextStrength only
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Draw—%
1.FC Köln—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sinsheim)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.FC Köln. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

1899 Hoffenheim1.FC Köln
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
46 AttackIn forecast 36
43 DefenceIn forecast 36
15 Form indexContext 26
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 Hoffenheim1.FC Köln
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
100% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.83 ShotsContext 16.33
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
30% On target shareContext 33%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
61% Box shareContext 71%
10% ConversionContext 8%
2.20 OffsidesContext 1.00
13.50 Shots allowedContext 15.67
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33
4.33 BlocksContext 3.83
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
52% Save rateContext 71%
57% PossessionIn forecast 48%
499 PassesContext 417
405 Accurate passesContext 344
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.76
13.33 FoulsContext 11.17
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.60 ShotsContext 15.30
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
28% On target shareContext 35%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
62% Box shareContext 73%
8% ConversionContext 9%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.17
12.90 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.10 BlocksContext 3.80
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
50% Save rateContext 60%
59% PossessionIn forecast 47%
515 PassesContext 414
426 Accurate passesContext 343
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.69
14.00 FoulsContext 9.80
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim
Rest1.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,633 km in 14d
Schedule load60%Critical
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel232 km306 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1899 Hoffenheim 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextCritical · 60Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match1.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km232 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,633 km306 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 41 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one5.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.33
1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent1899 Hoffenheim1.FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 2–1 A W 2–1 H
Hamburger SV L 2–3 H L 1–2 A
VfB Stuttgart W 2–1 H L 1–4 A
Points6 of 9 · 2.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 1899 Hoffenheim wins3 draws3 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.78 – 1.33 Over 2.556% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%
  • 29 Aug 20261.FC Köln3–21899 Hoffenheim
  • 21 Feb 20261.FC Köln2–21899 Hoffenheim
  • 3 Oct 20251899 Hoffenheim0–11.FC Köln
  • 11 Feb 20241899 Hoffenheim1–11.FC Köln
  • 16 Sep 20231.FC Köln1–31899 Hoffenheim
  • 22 Apr 20231899 Hoffenheim1–31.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1899 Hoffenheim1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.831.33
Conceded per game 2.331.83
Match goals 4.173.17
Over 1.5 100%83%
Over 2.5 100%67%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 100%83%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
1899 Hoffenheim1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.401.30
Conceded per game 2.302.30
Match goals 3.703.60
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%90%
Clean sheets 10%0%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1899 Hoffenheim1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won6.676.00
Corners conceded4.676.33
Match total11.3412.3310.72
Over 8.5100% 6/683% 5/6
Over 9.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 10.567% 4/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.171.83
Opponent cards0.671.67
Match total2.843.503.51
Over 3.533% 2/667% 4/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
1899 Hoffenheim1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won7.105.78
Corners conceded4.205.44
Match total11.3011.2210.72
Over 8.5100% 10/1078% 7/9
Over 9.590% 9/1078% 7/9
Over 10.570% 7/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.701.80
Opponent cards1.401.70
Match total4.103.503.51
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen SC Freiburg Jan 2314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach RB Leipzig Jan 2314:30 1899 Hoffenheim 1.FC Köln Jan 2314:30 Bayer Leverkusen SV Elversberg Jan 2314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Union Berlin Jan 2314:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayern München Jan 2314:30 FC Schalke 04 FC Augsburg Jan 2314:30 Hamburger SV Borussia Dortmund Jan 2314:30 SC Paderborn 07 FSV Mainz 05 Jan 2314:30