Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 23 · 14:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel413 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Mönchengladbach—%
Draw—%
RB Leipzig—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia MönchengladbachRB Leipzig
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
34 AttackIn forecast 76
21 DefenceIn forecast 53
7 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—
Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia MönchengladbachRB Leipzig
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
3.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
2.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.54
67% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.17 ShotsContext 17.67
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
30% On target shareContext 37%
9.83 Shots in the boxContext 12.67
64% Box shareContext 69%
9% ConversionContext 15%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.25
18.17 Shots allowedContext 17.00
8.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
3.20 BlocksContext 4.00
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
62% Save rateContext 77%
48% PossessionIn forecast 53%
404 PassesContext 508
328 Accurate passesContext 441
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.46 Team ratingContext 7.11
14.83 FoulsContext 9.83
10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
2.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.92
2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.40
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
30% On target shareContext 36%
8.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
65% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.78 OffsidesContext 1.29
15.10 Shots allowedContext 14.20
7.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
2.88 BlocksContext 3.00
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
68% Save rateContext 69%
50% PossessionIn forecast 54%
432 PassesContext 508
356 Accurate passesContext 443
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.63 Team ratingContext 6.97
12.60 FoulsContext 9.30
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km895 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
  • L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts
RB Leipzig
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel413 km1,187 km in 14d
Schedule load49%High
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Mönchengladbach RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15High · 49
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoYes
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km413 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways895 km1,187 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 32 / 4 / 4
Next matchdays after this one74.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander
36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin
RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Mönchengladbach Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
2.33
Conceded
3.33
RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins2 draws5 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.10 Over 2.540% Both scored10% Clean sheets40% · 70%
  • 29 Aug 2026RB Leipzig3–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 11 Apr 2026RB Leipzig1–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 28 Nov 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0RB Leipzig
  • 29 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0RB Leipzig
  • 9 Nov 2024RB Leipzig0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 17 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia MönchengladbachRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.332.67
Conceded per game 3.331.83
Match goals 4.674.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%83%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 33%17%
Games66
Borussia MönchengladbachRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.402.10
Conceded per game 2.302.00
Match goals 3.704.10
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia MönchengladbachRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.50
Corners conceded5.506.83
Match total11.5012.3310.72
Over 8.583% 5/6100% 6/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards3.001.00
Opponent cards1.831.50
Match total4.832.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Borussia MönchengladbachRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.80
Corners conceded5.305.70
Match total9.9010.5010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards3.101.30
Opponent cards2.101.30
Match total5.202.603.51
Over 3.590% 9/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
6 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 61-75
1 7 76-90
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3 1 0-15
1 7 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 61-75
5 7 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen SC Freiburg Jan 2314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach RB Leipzig Jan 2314:30 1899 Hoffenheim 1.FC Köln Jan 2314:30 Bayer Leverkusen SV Elversberg Jan 2314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Union Berlin Jan 2314:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayern München Jan 2314:30 FC Schalke 04 FC Augsburg Jan 2314:30 Hamburger SV Borussia Dortmund Jan 2314:30 SC Paderborn 07 FSV Mainz 05 Jan 2314:30