Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 23 · 14:30 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel191 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d4 · 4
Real contextStrength only
VfB Stuttgart—%
Draw—%
Bayern München—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Stuttgart)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

VfB StuttgartBayern München
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
70 AttackIn forecast 96
58 DefenceIn forecast 90
46 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB StuttgartBayern München
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.67
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 3.57
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
-0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
67% Scored inContext 83%
17% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.00 ShotsContext 24.17
5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33
34% On target shareContext 43%
12.17 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
72% Box shareContext 61%
8% ConversionContext 15%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.67
18.17 Shots allowedContext 7.67
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83
5.00 BlocksContext 3.00
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40
63% Save rateContext 75%
55% PossessionIn forecast 69%
506 PassesContext 706
422 Accurate passesContext 635
83% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.02 Team ratingContext 7.39
9.83 FoulsContext 10.50
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
80% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.80 ShotsContext 22.80
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
37% On target shareContext 43%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
70% Box shareContext 59%
11% ConversionContext 16%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.90
15.50 Shots allowedContext 8.10
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
5.22 BlocksContext 3.50
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
65% Save rateContext 70%
55% PossessionIn forecast 68%
502 PassesContext 693
422 Accurate passesContext 625
84% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.07 Team ratingContext 7.30
11.10 FoulsContext 8.60
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km729 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts
Bayern München
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel191 km3,881 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
VfB Stuttgart Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 35High · 53
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesYes
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 19 Jan2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km191 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways729 km3,881 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 42 / 4 / 4
Next matchdays after this one4.24.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Bayern München · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws7 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.20 – 3.10 Over 2.5100% Both scored70% Clean sheets0% · 30%
  • 28 Aug 2026Bayern München5–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 19 Apr 2026Bayern München4–2VfB Stuttgart
  • 6 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart0–5Bayern München
  • 28 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–3Bayern München
  • 19 Oct 2024Bayern München4–0VfB Stuttgart
  • 4 May 2024VfB Stuttgart3–1Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

VfB StuttgartBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.333.67
Conceded per game 1.670.83
Match goals 3.004.50
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 50%83%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 50%67%
Clean sheets 17%33%
Failed to score 33%17%
Games66
VfB StuttgartBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.903.60
Conceded per game 1.400.90
Match goals 3.304.50
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 50%70%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VfB StuttgartBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.679.40
Corners conceded6.003.20
Match total12.6712.6010.72
Over 8.583% 5/6100% 5/5
Over 9.583% 5/6100% 5/5
Over 10.583% 5/6100% 5/5
Cards
Cards1.000.83
Opponent cards2.332.17
Match total3.333.003.51
Over 3.550% 3/650% 3/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
VfB StuttgartBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.308.44
Corners conceded5.403.78
Match total11.7012.2210.72
Over 8.590% 9/10100% 9/9
Over 9.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 10.570% 7/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.401.00
Opponent cards2.101.90
Match total3.502.903.51
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen SC Freiburg Jan 2314:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach RB Leipzig Jan 2314:30 1899 Hoffenheim 1.FC Köln Jan 2314:30 Bayer Leverkusen SV Elversberg Jan 2314:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Union Berlin Jan 2314:30 VfB Stuttgart Bayern München Jan 2314:30 FC Schalke 04 FC Augsburg Jan 2314:30 Hamburger SV Borussia Dortmund Jan 2314:30 SC Paderborn 07 FSV Mainz 05 Jan 2314:30