Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 30 · 14:30 Fußball Arena München, München
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Schalke 04 15th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel493 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayern München—%
Draw—%
FC Schalke 04—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (München)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayern München and FC Schalke 04. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayern MünchenFC Schalke 04
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
96 AttackIn forecast 33
90 DefenceIn forecast 50
78 Form indexContext 41
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Schalke 04

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern MünchenFC Schalke 04
3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17
3.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.87
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
83% Scored inContext 33%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
24.17 ShotsContext 10.17
10.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
43% On target shareContext 34%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
61% Box shareContext 72%
15% ConversionContext 7%
2.67 OffsidesContext 3.00
7.67 Shots allowedContext 15.17
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.17
3.00 BlocksContext 4.50
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.17
75% Save rateContext 84%
69% PossessionIn forecast 40%
706 PassesContext 349
635 Accurate passesContext 243
90% Pass accuracyContext 70%
7.39 Team ratingContext 6.85
10.50 FoulsContext 9.33
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
0.83 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
3.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.42
90% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
22.80 ShotsContext 11.00
9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
43% On target shareContext 36%
13.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.67
59% Box shareContext 75%
16% ConversionContext 8%
2.90 OffsidesContext 2.63
8.10 Shots allowedContext 12.70
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.50 BlocksContext 3.40
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
70% Save rateContext 79%
68% PossessionIn forecast 45%
693 PassesContext 380
625 Accurate passesContext 278
90% Pass accuracyContext 73%
7.30 Team ratingContext 6.84
8.60 FoulsContext 8.90
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,261 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
FC Schalke 04
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel493 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · FSV Mainz 050–11.4 xPts
  • L11 OctA · SC Freiburg1–20.8 xPts
  • D20 SepH · SV Elversberg0–01.7 xPts
  • W11 SepA · Union Berlin3–11.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bayern München0–00.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München FC Schalke 04
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 53Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 27 Jan7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km493 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,261 km107 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 61 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
FC Schalke 04 Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs FSV Mainz 05 (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay 25N. Katić 5T. Becker
8R. Gosens 13Satoshi Tanaka 23S. El-Faouzi 17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche 19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Schalke 04 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.67
FC Schalke 04 · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentBayern MünchenFC Schalke 04
FC Augsburg D 2–2 A L 0–3 A
Union Berlin W 7–0 H W 3–1 A
SV Elversberg W 2–1 A D 0–0 H
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Bayern München wins1 draws0 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game2.67 – 0.00 Over 2.533% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 33%
  • 5 Sep 2026FC Schalke 040–0Bayern München
  • 13 May 2023Bayern München6–0FC Schalke 04
  • 12 Nov 2022FC Schalke 040–2Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayern MünchenFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 3.670.67
Conceded per game 0.831.17
Match goals 4.501.83
Over 1.5 83%50%
Over 2.5 83%50%
Over 3.5 67%17%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 17%67%
Games66
Bayern MünchenFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 3.600.67
Conceded per game 0.901.17
Match goals 4.501.83
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 70%17%
Both teams scored 60%33%
Clean sheets 40%33%
Failed to score 10%67%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern MünchenFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won9.403.60
Corners conceded3.205.40
Match total12.609.0010.72
Over 8.5100% 5/560% 3/5
Over 9.5100% 5/520% 1/5
Over 10.5100% 5/520% 1/5
Cards
Cards0.831.00
Opponent cards2.172.17
Match total3.003.173.51
Over 3.550% 3/650% 3/6
Over 4.50% 0/60% 0/6
Bayern MünchenFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won8.443.44
Corners conceded3.784.89
Match total12.228.3310.72
Over 8.5100% 9/956% 5/9
Over 9.578% 7/922% 2/9
Over 10.567% 6/911% 1/9
Cards
Cards1.001.20
Opponent cards1.901.90
Match total2.903.103.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 4 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Schalke 04 Jan 3014:30 SC Freiburg SC Paderborn 07 Jan 3014:30 FSV Mainz 05 Hamburger SV Jan 3014:30 Borussia Dortmund 1899 Hoffenheim Jan 3014:30 FC Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 3014:30 RB Leipzig Werder Bremen Jan 3014:30 Union Berlin Bayer Leverkusen Jan 3014:30 1.FC Köln VfB Stuttgart Jan 3014:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Mönchengladbach Jan 3014:30