Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 30 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel271 kmRest days2.8 · 1.8Matches / 14d4 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Borussia Dortmund1899 Hoffenheim
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
69 AttackIn forecast 46
80 DefenceIn forecast 43
61 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Dortmund1899 Hoffenheim
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
83% Scored inContext 100%
67% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.17 ShotsContext 17.83
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
34% On target shareContext 30%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
73% Box shareContext 61%
12% ConversionContext 10%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.20
11.67 Shots allowedContext 13.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
2.80 BlocksContext 4.33
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
78% Save rateContext 52%
55% PossessionIn forecast 57%
530 PassesContext 499
450 Accurate passesContext 405
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.17 FoulsContext 13.33
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
80% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.70 ShotsContext 16.60
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
39% On target shareContext 28%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
72% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 8%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.14
11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.90
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
2.78 BlocksContext 4.10
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
77% Save rateContext 50%
54% PossessionIn forecast 59%
530 PassesContext 515
454 Accurate passesContext 426
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.72
10.90 FoulsContext 14.00
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,867 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest1.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel271 km3,450 km in 14d
Schedule load60%Critical
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 48Critical · 60
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesYes
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 27 Jan1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 28 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km271 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,867 km3,450 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 62 / 4 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentBorussia Dortmund1899 Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart W 1–0 A W 2–1 H
SC Paderborn 07 W 3–0 H L 1–3 A
Hamburger SV W 2–0 H L 2–3 H
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

7 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.30 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%
  • 5 Sep 20261899 Hoffenheim2–3Borussia Dortmund
  • 18 Apr 20261899 Hoffenheim2–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 7 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–01899 Hoffenheim
  • 26 Apr 20251899 Hoffenheim2–3Borussia Dortmund
  • 15 Dec 2024Borussia Dortmund1–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 25 Feb 2024Borussia Dortmund2–31899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia Dortmund1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.831.83
Conceded per game 0.672.33
Match goals 2.504.17
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 33%100%
Clean sheets 67%0%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
Borussia Dortmund1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.901.40
Conceded per game 0.902.30
Match goals 2.803.70
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 40%60%
Both teams scored 40%70%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia Dortmund1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won4.836.67
Corners conceded4.674.67
Match total9.5011.3410.72
Over 8.567% 4/6100% 6/6
Over 9.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 10.533% 2/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.672.17
Opponent cards2.000.67
Match total4.672.843.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.550% 3/617% 1/6
Borussia Dortmund1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won5.807.10
Corners conceded4.504.20
Match total10.3011.3010.72
Over 8.570% 7/10100% 10/10
Over 9.560% 6/1090% 9/10
Over 10.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.202.70
Opponent cards1.501.40
Match total3.704.103.51
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Schalke 04 Jan 3014:30 SC Freiburg SC Paderborn 07 Jan 3014:30 FSV Mainz 05 Hamburger SV Jan 3014:30 Borussia Dortmund 1899 Hoffenheim Jan 3014:30 FC Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 3014:30 RB Leipzig Werder Bremen Jan 3014:30 Union Berlin Bayer Leverkusen Jan 3014:30 1.FC Köln VfB Stuttgart Jan 3014:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Mönchengladbach Jan 3014:30