Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 30 · 14:30 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel310 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 2
Real contextStrength only
RB Leipzig—%
Draw—%
Werder Bremen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

RB LeipzigWerder Bremen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
76 AttackIn forecast 56
53 DefenceIn forecast 45
78 Form indexContext 71
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Werder Bremen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RB LeipzigWerder Bremen
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.42
83% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.67 ShotsContext 14.00
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83
37% On target shareContext 49%
12.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.67
69% Box shareContext 66%
15% ConversionContext 14%
1.25 OffsidesContext 2.17
17.00 Shots allowedContext 15.33
7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.00 BlocksContext 4.50
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
77% Save rateContext 61%
53% PossessionIn forecast 47%
508 PassesContext 476
441 Accurate passesContext 400
87% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.11 Team ratingContext 6.96
9.83 FoulsContext 12.00
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.17
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.09
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.40 ShotsContext 12.70
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
36% On target shareContext 42%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.44
69% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 11%
1.29 OffsidesContext 2.44
14.20 Shots allowedContext 15.70
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60
3.00 BlocksContext 4.40
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
69% Save rateContext 66%
54% PossessionIn forecast 46%
508 PassesContext 458
443 Accurate passesContext 380
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.93
9.30 FoulsContext 10.30
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km2,601 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
  • D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RB Leipzig Werder Bremen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 48Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 27 Jan7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,601 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 61 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur
44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis
17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Werder Bremen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
4.67
Conceded
0.00
Werder Bremen · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 RB Leipzig wins3 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.11 Over 2.556% Both scored78% Clean sheets22% · 11%
  • 5 Sep 2026Werder Bremen3–1RB Leipzig
  • 4 Apr 2026Werder Bremen1–2RB Leipzig
  • 23 Nov 2025RB Leipzig2–0Werder Bremen
  • 10 May 2025Werder Bremen0–0RB Leipzig
  • 12 Jan 2025RB Leipzig4–2Werder Bremen
  • 11 May 2024RB Leipzig1–1Werder Bremen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RB LeipzigWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 2.672.00
Conceded per game 1.832.00
Match goals 4.504.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 83%83%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 33%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
RB LeipzigWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 2.101.40
Conceded per game 2.001.90
Match goals 4.103.30
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 50%80%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RB LeipzigWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.503.67
Corners conceded6.835.83
Match total12.339.5010.72
Over 8.5100% 6/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 10.567% 4/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.001.17
Opponent cards1.501.33
Match total2.502.503.51
Over 3.533% 2/617% 1/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
RB LeipzigWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.803.90
Corners conceded5.706.40
Match total10.5010.3010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 9.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 10.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.301.20
Opponent cards1.301.00
Match total2.602.203.51
Over 3.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Over 4.520% 2/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Werder Bremen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
6 3 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1 1 0-15
1 6 16-30
2 31-45
1 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Schalke 04 Jan 3014:30 SC Freiburg SC Paderborn 07 Jan 3014:30 FSV Mainz 05 Hamburger SV Jan 3014:30 Borussia Dortmund 1899 Hoffenheim Jan 3014:30 FC Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 3014:30 RB Leipzig Werder Bremen Jan 3014:30 Union Berlin Bayer Leverkusen Jan 3014:30 1.FC Köln VfB Stuttgart Jan 3014:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Mönchengladbach Jan 3014:30