FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV

Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 30 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

VS— Compare

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel414 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

FSV Mainz 05—%

Draw—%

Hamburger SV—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

68 AttackIn forecast 37

56 DefenceIn forecast 43

70 Form indexContext 70

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

83% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 17%

17.83 ShotsContext 11.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

34% On target shareContext 33%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

76% Box shareContext 56%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.50 Shots allowedContext 19.17

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

4.17 BlocksContext 5.33

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

57% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 40%

446 PassesContext 346

357 Accurate passesContext 270

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.54

13.83 FoulsContext 14.17

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.10 ShotsContext 11.60

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 35%

12.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

75% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.50 Shots allowedContext 16.40

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.30 BlocksContext 4.56

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

58% Save rateContext 64%

48% PossessionIn forecast 40%

420 PassesContext 348

337 Accurate passesContext 275

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.80 FoulsContext 12.40

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km689 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel414 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	414 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	689 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws1 Hamburger SV wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

6 Sep 2026Hamburger SV0–5FSV Mainz 05
20 Feb 2026FSV Mainz 051–1Hamburger SV
5 Oct 2025Hamburger SV4–0FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV
Scored per game	2.33	1.00
Conceded per game	1.67	2.50
Match goals	4.00	3.50
Over 1.5	67%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	33%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	17%	50%
Games	6	6

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV
Scored per game	2.20	1.30
Conceded per game	1.80	2.10
Match goals	4.00	3.40
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	70%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	3.83
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	8.83	9.83	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.33
Opponent cards	2.00	2.17
Match total	4.33	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.60
Corners conceded	4.90	6.40
Match total	9.70	10.00	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	1.90	2.60
Match total	3.80	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.