Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 30 · 14:30 Cologne Stadium, Köln
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel288 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 4
Real contextStrength only
1.FC Köln—%
Draw—%
VfB Stuttgart—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Köln)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1.FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

1.FC KölnVfB Stuttgart
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
36 AttackIn forecast 70
36 DefenceIn forecast 58
26 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC KölnVfB Stuttgart
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.58
83% Scored inContext 67%
0% Clean sheetsContext 17%
16.33 ShotsContext 17.00
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83
33% On target shareContext 34%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.17
71% Box shareContext 72%
8% ConversionContext 8%
1.00 OffsidesContext 1.60
15.67 Shots allowedContext 18.17
6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
3.83 BlocksContext 5.00
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
71% Save rateContext 63%
48% PossessionIn forecast 55%
417 PassesContext 506
344 Accurate passesContext 422
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.76 Team ratingContext 7.02
11.17 FoulsContext 9.83
11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
90% Scored inContext 80%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
15.30 ShotsContext 16.80
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
35% On target shareContext 37%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
73% Box shareContext 70%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.17 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.50 Shots allowedContext 15.50
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.80 BlocksContext 5.22
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
60% Save rateContext 65%
47% PossessionIn forecast 55%
414 PassesContext 502
343 Accurate passesContext 422
83% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.69 Team ratingContext 7.07
9.80 FoulsContext 11.10
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km770 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel288 km792 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1.FC Köln VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoYes
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 27 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km288 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways770 km792 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 42 / 4 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter
VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent1.FC KölnVfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV L 1–2 A L 0–1 A
1899 Hoffenheim W 3–2 H L 1–2 A
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 1.FC Köln wins2 draws6 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.89 Over 2.556% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 33%
  • 4 Sep 2026VfB Stuttgart4–11.FC Köln
  • 14 Feb 2026VfB Stuttgart3–11.FC Köln
  • 28 Sep 20251.FC Köln1–2VfB Stuttgart
  • 24 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11.FC Köln
  • 30 Sep 20231.FC Köln0–2VfB Stuttgart
  • 18 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart3–01.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1.FC KölnVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 1.331.33
Conceded per game 1.831.67
Match goals 3.173.00
Over 1.5 83%67%
Over 2.5 67%50%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 83%50%
Clean sheets 0%17%
Failed to score 17%33%
Games66
1.FC KölnVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 1.301.90
Conceded per game 2.301.40
Match goals 3.603.30
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 90%60%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1.FC KölnVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won6.006.67
Corners conceded6.336.00
Match total12.3312.6710.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 10.567% 4/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards1.831.00
Opponent cards1.672.33
Match total3.503.333.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.50% 0/617% 1/6
1.FC KölnVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won5.786.30
Corners conceded5.445.40
Match total11.2211.7010.72
Over 8.578% 7/990% 9/10
Over 9.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 10.544% 4/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.801.40
Opponent cards1.702.10
Match total3.503.503.51
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Schalke 04 Jan 3014:30 SC Freiburg SC Paderborn 07 Jan 3014:30 FSV Mainz 05 Hamburger SV Jan 3014:30 Borussia Dortmund 1899 Hoffenheim Jan 3014:30 FC Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 3014:30 RB Leipzig Werder Bremen Jan 3014:30 Union Berlin Bayer Leverkusen Jan 3014:30 1.FC Köln VfB Stuttgart Jan 3014:30 SV Elversberg Borussia Mönchengladbach Jan 3014:30