Bournemouth vs Arsenal – 3 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 3 · 17:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 15th · 23 pts · 19 played DDDLD

2–3Full time

Arsenal 1st · 45 pts · 19 played LWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 68). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Bournemouth had 3.9 days of rest, Arsenal 3.9 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days3.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 3

Bournemouth18%

Draw22%

Arsenal61%

Expected goals 1.06 – 2.09

Bournemouth17%

Draw23%

Arsenal60%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.91

Bournemouth17%

Draw21%

Arsenal62%

Expected goals 1.01 – 2.10

Bournemouth13%

Draw19%

Arsenal68%

Expected goals 0.94 – 2.34

Bournemouth18%

Draw23%

Arsenal59%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.90

Over 2.5 61% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 146

Team strength

Bournemouth

Arsenal

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

83 AttackIn forecast 86

82 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Arsenal

1.53 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.95

1.84 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

79% Scored inContext 95%

26% Clean sheetsContext 47%

13.84 ShotsContext 15.37

5.16 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

37% On target shareContext 33%

9.06 Shots in the boxContext 11.79

61% Box shareContext 76%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.21 Shots allowedContext 7.53

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.69

3.63 BlocksContext 3.19

3.24 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.07

64% Save rateContext 76%

51% PossessionIn forecast 59%

419 PassesContext 496

337 Accurate passesContext 424

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.07

12.53 FoulsContext 10.05

10.74 Fouls sufferedContext 10.68

2.37 Yellow cardsContext 1.37

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.10 ShotsContext 15.90

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

38% On target shareContext 39%

10.89 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

65% Box shareContext 75%

9% ConversionContext 15%

1.90 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.30 Shots allowedContext 8.40

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

4.20 BlocksContext 3.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

58% Save rateContext 74%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

417 PassesContext 472

334 Accurate passesContext 401

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.07

12.50 FoulsContext 10.00

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km579 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel151 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec	3.9Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	579 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

16M. Tavernier 8A. Scott

7D. Brooks 19J. Kluivert 24A. Semenyo

9Evanilson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

11Gabriel Martinelli 14V. Gyökeres 20C. Madueke

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+1.0 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Arsenal-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-1
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 0.67

Arsenal · Away 1.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-2
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 0.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Arsenal
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Brentford	L 1–4 A	W 2–0 H
Burnley	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Manchester United	D 4–4 A	W 1–0 A
Everton	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Sunderland	L 2–3 A	D 2–2 A
West Ham	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 H
Aston Villa	L 0–4 A	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	W 1–0 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 A
Leeds	D 2–2 A	W 5–0 H
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Brighton	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 4–1 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	L 2–4 A	L 0–1 A
Points	23 of 57 · 1.21 per game	45 of 57 · 2.37 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Bournemouth wins0 draws4 Arsenal wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.33 Over 2.583% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 50%

3 May 2025Arsenal1–2Bournemouth
19 Oct 2024Bournemouth2–0Arsenal
4 May 2024Arsenal3–0Bournemouth
30 Sep 2023Bournemouth0–4Arsenal
4 Mar 2023Arsenal3–2Bournemouth
20 Aug 2022Bournemouth0–3Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.53	1.95
Conceded per game	1.84	0.63
Match goals	3.37	2.58	3.14
Over 1.5	74%	74%
Over 2.5	63%	47%	61%
Over 3.5	58%	21%
Both teams scored	63%	47%	58%
Clean sheets	26%	47%
Failed to score	21%	5%
Games	19	19

	Bournemouth	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.10
Conceded per game	2.40	0.90
Match goals	3.70	3.00	3.14
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	61%
Over 3.5	70%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.65	5.67
Corners conceded	5.06	3.11
Match total	10.71	8.78	9.86
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	44% 8/18
Over 9.5	59% 10/17	39% 7/18
Over 10.5	53% 9/17	39% 7/18
Cards
Cards	2.42	1.37
Opponent cards	2.11	1.79
Match total	4.53	3.16	3.82
Over 3.5	68% 13/19	42% 8/19
Over 4.5	42% 8/19	21% 4/19

	Bournemouth	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	4.11
Corners conceded	5.67	2.67
Match total	11.56	6.78	9.86
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	4.50	4.10	3.82
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 146 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.68

Red cards0.13league 0.10

Cards 5+36%league 37%

Fouls21.8league 21.4

Penalties0.23league 0.20

Home wins40%league 47%

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 2

D20 Dec 25H · Burnley1–11
D16 Dec 24H · West Ham1–10
D26 Oct 24A · Aston Villa1–16
W11 Nov 23H · Newcastle2–02
L20 May 23H · Manchester United0–11

Arsenal16 with this referee

Record8-5-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W1 Nov 25A · Burnley2–01
L31 Aug 25A · Liverpool0–12
W20 Apr 25A · Ipswich4–00
W16 Mar 25H · Chelsea1–03
D18 Jan 25H · Aston Villa2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.