Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 62). Brentford had 8.1 days of rest, Leeds 8 and had to travel 270 km.
Away travel270 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Brentford49%
Draw25%
Leeds26%
Brentford49%
Draw26%
Leeds25%
Brentford49%
Draw25%
Leeds25%
Brentford41%
Draw27%
Leeds32%
Brentford49%
Draw26%
Leeds25%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 90
Team strength
Brentford
Leeds
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
73
AttackIn forecast
69
73
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordLeeds
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.93
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
73%
Scored inContext
67%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.07
ShotsContext
12.27
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
39%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.27
73%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.27
Shots allowedContext
11.87
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.93
BlocksContext
3.77
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
66%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
353
PassesContext
410
275
Accurate passesContext
334
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.53
FoulsContext
10.87
8.71
Fouls sufferedContext
12.53
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
39%
On target shareContext
34%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
73%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.40
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.30
BlocksContext
3.89
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
70%
Save rateContext
56%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
373
PassesContext
415
290
Accurate passesContext
339
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.90
FoulsContext
11.20
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km52 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel270 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 270 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 52 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
2A. Hickey
4S. van den Berg
22N. Collins
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
6J. Henderson
23K. Lewis-Potter
8M. Jensen
19D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1Lucas Perri(G)
5P. Struijk
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
3G. Gudmundsson
18A. Stach
4E. Ampadu
22A. Tanaka
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Leeds+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.14
Leeds · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-6
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 2.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Burnley | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Fulham | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game | 8 of 36 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Brentford wins2 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 22 Jan 2023Leeds0–0Brentford
- 3 Sep 2022Brentford5–2Leeds
- 22 May 2022Brentford1–2Leeds
- 5 Dec 2021Leeds2–2Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.93 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 73% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Brentford | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.47 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 7.79 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 11/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 9/15 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 4.07 | 3.46 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Brentford | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.00 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 3.66
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+48%league 39%
Fouls22.9league 22.0
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins54%league 49%
Brentford5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L21 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–31
- W28 May 23H · Manchester City1–04
- L5 Apr 23A · Manchester United0–12
- L8 Oct 22A · Newcastle1–51
- D27 Aug 22H · Everton1–12
Leeds1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Sep 23A · Southampton1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford15 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
3
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
10
7
76-90
Leeds15 games · scored 19 · conceded 29
5
4
0-15
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
5
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
