Brentford
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Brentford49.0%fair odds 2.04
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.93
Leeds25.5%fair odds 3.92
Expected goals1.67 – 1.15total 2.82
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brentford ↓ · Leeds → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brentford goals, columns Leeds goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.30
- 2–19.6%10.45
- 1–09.4%10.68
- 2–08.3%11.99
- 0–06.6%15.23
- 1–26.6%15.24
- 0–16.2%16.05
- 2–25.5%18.22
- 3–15.3%18.74
- 3–04.7%21.50
Winning margin
11.4%
Brentford by 3+
fair 8.79
15.1%
Brentford by 2
fair 6.61
22.5%
Brentford by 1
fair 4.44
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.93
15.3%
Leeds by 1
fair 6.55
7.1%
Leeds by 2
fair 14.06
3.2%
Leeds by 3+
fair 31.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Brentford goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Leeds goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 49.0% | 48.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Leeds win | 25.5% | 25.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 51.2% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.0% | 54.2% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Brentford | 1.67 | 1.62 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.15 | 1.10 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brentford win49.0%2.04
- Draw25.4%3.93
- Leeds win25.5%3.92
- Double chance Brentford or draw74.5%1.34
- Double chance Brentford or Leeds74.6%1.34
- Double chance Leeds or draw51.0%1.96
- Draw no bet Brentford65.8%1.52
- Draw no bet Leeds34.2%2.92
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.28
- Over 2.553.5%1.87
- Over 3.531.3%3.20
- Over 4.515.6%6.43
- Under 1.522.2%4.51
- Under 2.546.5%2.15
- Under 3.568.7%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes56.0%1.78
- No44.0%2.28
- Yes and over 2.544.0%2.27
- Brentford win and yes23.9%4.19
- Draw and yes18.9%5.30
- Leeds win and yes13.3%7.50
Team goals
- Brentford over 0.581.2%1.23
- Brentford over 1.549.8%2.01
- Brentford over 2.523.6%4.24
- Leeds over 0.568.2%1.47
- Leeds over 1.531.8%3.14
- Leeds over 2.510.9%9.15
- Brentford clean sheet31.8%3.15
- Leeds clean sheet18.8%5.33
- Brentford win to nil25.2%3.97
- Leeds win to nil12.2%8.20
Handicap
- Brentford −1.526.5%3.77
- Brentford −2.511.4%8.79
- Leeds +1.573.5%1.36
- Leeds +2.588.6%1.13
- Leeds −1.510.3%9.73
- Brentford +1.589.7%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored158
Favourite won55.7%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.586
Over 2.5 called right57.0%
BTTS called right51.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 23 | 38.2% | 47.8% |
| 40–50% | 60 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 43 | 54.2% | 55.8% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.2% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 73.3% | 64.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 128 of 158 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5823 | 0.5650 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 42.2% |
| Favourite won | 56.3% | 56.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 128 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 158 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.