Brentford vs Liverpool – 25 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 25 · 20:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 15th · 10 pts · 8 played DLWLW

3–2Full time

Liverpool 6th · 15 pts · 8 played WWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 69). Absences weigh more on Liverpool. Brentford had 5 days of rest, Liverpool 6.1 and had to travel 280 km.

Away travel280 kmRest days5 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brentford25%

Draw24%

Liverpool51%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.80

Brentford24%

Draw26%

Liverpool50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.65

Brentford23%

Draw24%

Liverpool52%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.81

Brentford19%

Draw22%

Liverpool59%

Expected goals 1.06 – 2.02

Brentford25%

Draw26%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.64

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 131

Team strength

Brentford

Liverpool

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

73 AttackIn forecast 85

73 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Liverpool

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

88% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

9.88 ShotsContext 15.25

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

41% On target shareContext 30%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.25

76% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 12%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.29

12.63 Shots allowedContext 10.38

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

4.63 BlocksContext 3.29

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14

67% Save rateContext 58%

41% PossessionIn forecast 62%

335 PassesContext 520

264 Accurate passesContext 443

79% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.25 FoulsContext 9.13

9.13 Fouls sufferedContext 11.13

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.30 ShotsContext 15.40

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

44% On target shareContext 31%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

79% Box shareContext 70%

14% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.22

13.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

5.00 BlocksContext 2.78

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

67% Save rateContext 60%

43% PossessionIn forecast 63%

347 PassesContext 546

276 Accurate passesContext 475

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.90 FoulsContext 9.20

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel280 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Oct	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	280 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	26 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

20K. Ajer 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

6J. Henderson 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25G. Mamardashvili(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

17C. Jones 8D. Szoboszlai

18C. Gakpo 7F. Wirtz 11Mohamed Salah

22H. Ekitiké

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+1.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Liverpool-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Liverpool · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Liverpool
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 A
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Brentford wins1 draws6 Liverpool wins

Goals per game0.88 – 2.38 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets0% · 63%

18 Jan 2025Brentford0–2Liverpool
25 Aug 2024Liverpool2–0Brentford
17 Feb 2024Brentford1–4Liverpool
12 Nov 2023Liverpool3–0Brentford
6 May 2023Liverpool1–0Brentford
2 Jan 2023Brentford3–1Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.75
Conceded per game	1.50	1.38
Match goals	2.88	3.13	2.98
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	75%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	63%	75%	59%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	13%	0%
Games	8	8

	Brentford	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.75
Conceded per game	1.50	1.38
Match goals	2.88	3.13	2.98
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	75%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	63%	75%	59%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	13%	0%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	5.63
Corners conceded	4.38	5.00
Match total	9.76	10.63	9.82
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.88	1.88
Opponent cards	2.13	1.88
Match total	4.01	3.76	3.72
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8

	Brentford	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	6.30
Corners conceded	4.60	4.40
Match total	9.70	10.70	9.82
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.30
Match total	4.30	4.10	3.72
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 131 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.61

Red cards0.06league 0.12

Cards 5+36%league 39%

Fouls21.8league 22.0

Penalties0.16league 0.19

Home wins49%league 49%

Brentford14 with this referee

Record4-6-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D12 Apr 25A · Arsenal1–13
D26 Feb 25H · Everton1–12
W7 Dec 24H · Newcastle4–23
D28 Sep 24H · West Ham1–12
L19 May 24H · Newcastle2–44

Liverpool11 with this referee

Record7-1-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W25 Aug 25A · Newcastle3–23
L4 May 25A · Chelsea1–32
W16 Feb 25H · Wolves2–12
W5 Oct 24A · Crystal Palace1–02
D13 May 24A · Aston Villa3–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.