Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 25 Sun, Feb 8 · 14:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton
13th · 31 pts · 24 played
WDDLD
0–1Full time
Crystal Palace
15th · 29 pts · 24 played
LDLLD
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Brighton had 8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 7 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Brighton49%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace26%
Brighton51%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace23%
Brighton49%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace26%
Brighton41%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace33%
Brighton47%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace27%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 101
Team strength
BrightonCrystal Palace
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
87
AttackIn forecast
64
85
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonCrystal Palace
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.54
83%
Scored inContext
67%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.25
ShotsContext
11.63
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
66%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.37
OffsidesContext
2.24
12.38
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.50
BlocksContext
3.05
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
68%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
471
PassesContext
385
397
Accurate passesContext
299
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.83
FoulsContext
10.17
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.92
2.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
29%
On target shareContext
30%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
70%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.22
OffsidesContext
3.22
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.56
BlocksContext
3.11
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
70%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
485
PassesContext
430
410
Accurate passesContext
340
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.10
FoulsContext
10.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
7.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 350 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
29M. De Cuyper
21O. Boscagli
5L. Dunk
24F. Kadıoğlu
17C. Baleba
30P. Groß
22K. Mitoma
10G. Rutter
53Harry Howell
19C. Kostoulas
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
26Chris Richards
5M. Lacroix
8J. Lerma
3T. Mitchell
19W. Hughes
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
10Yeremy Pino
7I. Sarr
22J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
1.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.08
Crystal Palace · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| West Ham | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 3–4 H | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Brentford | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Leeds | W 3–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 A | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game | 28 of 69 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Brighton wins5 draws3 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 9 Nov 2025Crystal Palace0–0Brighton
- 5 Apr 2025Crystal Palace2–1Brighton
- 15 Dec 2024Brighton1–3Crystal Palace
- 3 Feb 2024Brighton4–1Crystal Palace
- 21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1–1Brighton
- 15 Mar 2023Brighton1–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 46% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.08 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 13/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 11/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 3.96 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.10 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.50 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.71
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 21.3
Penalties0.20league 0.21
Home wins48%league 44%
Brighton3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D7 Jan 26A · Manchester City1–16
- D21 Jan 23A · Leicester2–21
- L30 Aug 22A · Fulham1–21
Crystal Palace8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Dec 25A · Leeds1–43
- L26 Oct 25A · Arsenal0–10
- D13 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–01
- W18 Jan 25A · West Ham2–00
- D26 Dec 24A · Bournemouth0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton24 games · scored 34 · conceded 32
3
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
4
46-60
8
4
61-75
12
7
76-90
Crystal Palace24 games · scored 25 · conceded 29
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
7
9
31-45
1
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
6
8
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
