Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 54). Burnley had 7 days of rest, Tottenham 7 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Burnley35%
Draw26%
Tottenham39%
Burnley35%
Draw27%
Tottenham38%
Burnley35%
Draw27%
Tottenham38%
Burnley28%
Draw26%
Tottenham46%
Burnley35%
Draw27%
Tottenham38%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 115
Team strength
Burnley
Tottenham
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
27
AttackIn forecast
56
25
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyTottenham
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
2.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
68%
Scored inContext
82%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
8.82
ShotsContext
10.68
3.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
33%
On target shareContext
33%
5.27
Shots in the boxContext
7.81
59%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.05
17.05
Shots allowedContext
11.73
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.95
5.00
BlocksContext
3.05
4.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
371
PassesContext
417
288
Accurate passesContext
341
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.05
FoulsContext
10.91
8.82
Fouls sufferedContext
9.23
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
2.68
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.30
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
30%
On target shareContext
35%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
65%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.86
16.60
Shots allowedContext
11.60
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
5.38
BlocksContext
3.50
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
422
PassesContext
390
338
Accurate passesContext
310
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.10
FoulsContext
10.90
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km131 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 131 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
12B. Humphreys
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
23Lucas Pires
16Florentino
8L. Ugochukwu
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
10M. Edwards
27A. Broja
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
4K. Danso
24D. Spence
8Y. Bissouma
22C. Gallagher
23Pedro Porro
7X. Simons
28W. Odobert
19D. Solanke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Tottenham+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
0.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.36
Tottenham · Away
1.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Brighton | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Everton | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Fulham | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| West Ham | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–5 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 14 of 63 · 0.67 per game | 24 of 63 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Burnley wins0 draws6 Tottenham wins
Goals per game0.57 – 2.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 16 Aug 2025Tottenham3–0Burnley
- 11 May 2024Tottenham2–1Burnley
- 2 Sep 2023Burnley2–5Tottenham
- 15 May 2022Tottenham1–0Burnley
- 23 Feb 2022Burnley1–0Tottenham
- 28 Feb 2021Tottenham4–0Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.91 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.73 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 64% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 55% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 18% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Burnley | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 10.61 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 11/22 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 2.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.18 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 4.59 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 8/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 3/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Burnley | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.30 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 5.40 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 3.76
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+44%league 39%
Fouls21.4league 21.3
Penalties0.15league 0.21
Home wins51%league 45%
Burnley5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Nov 25H · Chelsea0–22
- L4 Nov 23H · Crystal Palace0–20
- W3 Oct 23A · Luton2–12
- W11 Dec 22A · QPR3–02
- D13 Sep 22A · Preston1–10
Tottenham9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Aug 25A · Manchester City2–04
- L16 May 25A · Aston Villa0–22
- L21 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest1–21
- W16 Feb 25H · Manchester United1–01
- W16 Sep 23H · Sheffield Utd2–16
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley22 games · scored 23 · conceded 42
2
7
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
10
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
8
11
76-90
Tottenham22 games · scored 31 · conceded 29
3
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
8
31-45
6
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
9
8
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
