Celta Vigo vs Lyon – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo

1–1Full time

Lyon

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 6 days of rest, Lyon 4 and had to travel 1,161 km.

Away travel1,161 kmRest days6 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2

Celta Vigo57%

Draw25%

Lyon19%

Expected goals 1.76 – 0.92

Celta Vigo45%

Draw27%

Lyon28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Celta Vigo56%

Draw25%

Lyon19%

Expected goals 1.76 – 0.93

Celta Vigo49%

Draw27%

Lyon24%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.03

Celta Vigo56%

Draw25%

Lyon18%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.87

Over 2.5 50% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 53

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Lyon

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

36 AttackIn forecast 55

61 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Lyon

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

0.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.69

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.20 ShotsContext 11.50

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

39% On target shareContext 41%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

68% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 17%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.29

8.40 Shots allowedContext 10.90

3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.33 BlocksContext 3.22

1.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

57% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 55%

506 PassesContext 499

444 Accurate passesContext 431

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.60 FoulsContext 11.30

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,905 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lyon

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,161 km554 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Mar	4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,161 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,905 km	554 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

3Óscar Mingueza 6I. Moriba 15M. Vecino 17Javi Rueda

19W. Swedberg 10Iago Aspas

7Borja Iglesias

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1D. Greif(G)

3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 60Steeve Kango

8C. Tolisso 23T. Morton

16Abner 99N. Nartey 9Endrick

77R. Yaremchuk

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lyon-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home No home games yet this season.

Lyon · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.68
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Celta Vigo	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	2.50	3.20	2.68
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Celta Vigo	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.89
Corners conceded	3.90	4.56
Match total	8.40	8.45	7.50
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	3.20	4.00	4.75
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 53 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 4.25

Red cards0.11league 0.50

Cards 5+40%league 75%

Fouls22.5league 26.8

Penalties0.34league 0.25

Home wins45%league 25%

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.