Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days14 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Charleroi—%
Draw—%
St. Truiden—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Charleroi)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Charleroi and St. Truiden. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CharleroiSt. Truiden
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
43 AttackIn forecast 37
50 DefenceIn forecast 32
80 Form indexContext 11
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CharleroiSt. Truiden
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88
0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.86 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
100% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
16.75 ShotsContext 17.00
5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
34% On target shareContext 27%
11.63 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
69% Box shareContext 68%
12% ConversionContext 11%
1.86 OffsidesContext 1.86
10.88 Shots allowedContext 13.63
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
4.57 BlocksContext 3.00
2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
79% Save rateContext 69%
57% PossessionIn forecast 56%
496 PassesContext 520
421 Accurate passesContext 437
85% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.82
10.13 FoulsContext 10.38
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.63
1.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.21
100% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.80 ShotsContext 17.00
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
34% On target shareContext 27%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
70% Box shareContext 68%
11% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86
10.40 Shots allowedContext 13.63
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
4.50 BlocksContext 3.10
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
83% Save rateContext 69%
58% PossessionIn forecast 56%
484 PassesContext 520
411 Accurate passesContext 437
85% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.08 Team ratingContext 6.82
10.10 FoulsContext 10.80
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts
St. Truiden
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
  • L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
  • L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Charleroi St. Truiden
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 7 Nov12.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways165 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.27.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
St. Truiden Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.50
St. Truiden · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.50
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentCharleroiSt. Truiden
Cercle Brugge W 3–2 H D 3–3 A
Union St. Gilloise L 2–3 H L 0–3 H
KV Mechelen W 2–0 H L 3–4 A
Lommel United W 1–0 A D 1–1 H
Points9 of 12 · 2.25 per game2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Charleroi wins2 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.75 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%
  • 31 Jan 2026St. Truiden0–2Charleroi
  • 3 Aug 2025Charleroi1–1St. Truiden
  • 23 Dec 2023St. Truiden1–0Charleroi
  • 3 Sep 2023Charleroi1–1St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CharleroiSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 2.001.88
Conceded per game 0.882.00
Match goals 2.883.88
Over 1.5 63%100%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 0%38%
Games88
CharleroiSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.601.80
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 2.603.80
Over 1.5 60%90%
Over 2.5 40%60%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%50%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CharleroiSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.505.38
Corners conceded4.383.63
Match total9.889.0110.01
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.563% 5/838% 3/8
Over 10.563% 5/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.132.00
Opponent cards1.381.25
Match total2.513.253.36
Over 3.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 4.50% 0/825% 2/8
CharleroiSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.505.50
Corners conceded4.703.50
Match total11.209.0010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 10.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.402.20
Opponent cards1.401.30
Match total2.803.503.36
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
St. Truiden8 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 5 46-60
4 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2 0-15
6 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 6 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Cercle Brugge KVC Westerlo Nov 2019:45 Charleroi St. Truiden Nov 2115:00 Genk RAAL La Louvière Nov 2117:15 KV Mechelen Club Brugge KV Nov 2119:45 Zulte Waregem Antwerp Nov 2119:45 SK Beveren Gent Nov 2212:30 Kortrijk Union St. Gilloise Nov 2215:00 Anderlecht OH Leuven Nov 2217:30 Lommel United Standard Liege Nov 2218:15