Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 8 · 18:15 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Zulte Waregem 8th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

St. Truiden are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden have 7.1 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 8.9 and have to travel.

Rest days7.1 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
St. Truiden50%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem26%
Expected goals 1.85 – 1.27
St. Truiden47%
Draw26%
Zulte Waregem27%
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13
St. Truiden50%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem26%
Expected goals 1.85 – 1.27
St. Truiden42%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem33%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.43
St. Truiden50%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem26%
Expected goals 1.83 – 1.29
Over 2.5 60% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 20 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

St. TruidenZulte Waregem
35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 30
37 AttackIn forecast 27
32 DefenceIn forecast 31
11 Form indexContext 17
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Zulte Waregem

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenZulte Waregem
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.25
1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
63% Scored inContext 50%
13% Clean sheetsContext 38%
17.00 ShotsContext 12.63
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
27% On target shareContext 34%
11.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.13
68% Box shareContext 65%
11% ConversionContext 10%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.80
13.63 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
3.00 BlocksContext 3.13
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63
69% Save rateContext 74%
56% PossessionIn forecast 43%
520 PassesContext 376
437 Accurate passesContext 304
84% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.85
10.38 FoulsContext 11.50
9.63 Fouls sufferedContext 12.88
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.88
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.34
1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
70% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.00 ShotsContext 13.10
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
27% On target shareContext 35%
11.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.20
68% Box shareContext 64%
11% ConversionContext 12%
1.86 OffsidesContext 3.00
13.63 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.10 BlocksContext 3.11
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60
69% Save rateContext 72%
56% PossessionIn forecast 45%
520 PassesContext 385
437 Accurate passesContext 308
84% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.84
10.80 FoulsContext 11.00
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
  • L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
  • L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts
Zulte Waregem
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Gent0–21.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Anderlecht0–31.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Charleroi0–11.6 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Kortrijk2–01.8 xPts
  • D30 AugA · KVC Westerlo2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden Zulte Waregem
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov8.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one12.913.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar
Zulte Waregem Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Gent (H) 0–2, 10 Oct
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle 5Jakob Kiilerich 4L. Lemoine 23S. Diakité
11M. Aké 6E. Lofolomo 8T. Claes
20T. Hedl 18A. Ementa 10M. Mbaye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden No reported absences
Zulte Waregem No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Zulte Waregem · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenZulte Waregem
KVC Westerlo L 0–2 H D 2–2 A
SK Beveren L 0–2 A W 4–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–3 H D 0–0 A
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 St. Truiden wins0 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 15 Feb 2026St. Truiden3–2Zulte Waregem
  • 23 Aug 2025Zulte Waregem0–2St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenZulte WaregemForecast
Scored per game 1.881.25
Conceded per game 2.001.13
Match goals 3.882.38 3.13
Over 1.5 100%75%
Over 2.5 63%50% 60%
Over 3.5 50%25%
Both teams scored 50%25% 61%
Clean sheets 13%38%
Failed to score 38%50%
Games88
St. TruidenZulte WaregemForecast
Scored per game 1.801.10
Conceded per game 2.001.10
Match goals 3.802.20 3.13
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%40% 60%
Over 3.5 50%20%
Both teams scored 50%20% 61%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 30%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenZulte WaregemLeague
Corners
Corners won5.384.50
Corners conceded3.635.25
Match total9.019.7510.01
Over 8.550% 4/875% 6/8
Over 9.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 10.525% 2/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards1.252.25
Match total3.253.253.36
Over 3.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
St. TruidenZulte WaregemLeague
Corners
Corners won5.505.20
Corners conceded3.504.80
Match total9.0010.0010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 9.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.201.00
Opponent cards1.302.30
Match total3.503.303.36
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

St. Truiden8 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 5 46-60
4 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Zulte Waregem8 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
4 1 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2 0-15
6 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 6 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege SK Beveren Nov 619:45 KVC Westerlo Charleroi Nov 715:00 OH Leuven KV Mechelen Nov 717:15 Antwerp Lommel United Nov 719:45 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge Nov 719:45 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht Nov 812:30 Gent Kortrijk Nov 815:00 Union St. Gilloise Genk Nov 817:30 St. Truiden Zulte Waregem Nov 818:15