Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 7 · 15:00 Het Kuipje, Westerlo
KVC Westerlo 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Charleroi. KVC Westerlo have 6.8 days of rest, Charleroi 5.9 and have to travel 82 km.

Away travel82 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
KVC Westerlo40%
Draw25%
Charleroi35%
Expected goals 1.63 – 1.53
KVC Westerlo40%
Draw27%
Charleroi33%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26
KVC Westerlo40%
Draw25%
Charleroi35%
Expected goals 1.63 – 1.53
KVC Westerlo32%
Draw24%
Charleroi43%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.71
KVC Westerlo40%
Draw25%
Charleroi35%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.50
Over 2.5 61% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for KVC Westerlo and Charleroi. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

KVC WesterloCharleroi
33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
42 AttackIn forecast 43
32 DefenceIn forecast 50
83 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KVC WesterloCharleroi
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73
+1.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
88% Scored inContext 100%
25% Clean sheetsContext 50%
14.88 ShotsContext 16.75
5.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63
36% On target shareContext 34%
10.63 Shots in the boxContext 11.63
72% Box shareContext 69%
17% ConversionContext 12%
1.17 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.88
5.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.38 BlocksContext 4.57
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
59% Save rateContext 79%
51% PossessionIn forecast 57%
454 PassesContext 496
378 Accurate passesContext 421
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.81 Team ratingContext 7.10
13.38 FoulsContext 10.13
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.84
1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71
+0.89 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
80% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.00 ShotsContext 16.80
4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
32% On target shareContext 34%
10.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
68% Box shareContext 70%
14% ConversionContext 11%
1.14 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.40
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
2.70 BlocksContext 4.50
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
61% Save rateContext 83%
52% PossessionIn forecast 58%
459 PassesContext 484
384 Accurate passesContext 411
84% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.77 Team ratingContext 7.08
12.90 FoulsContext 10.10
10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KVC Westerlo
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 13 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +6.9 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · Antwerp5–11.8 xPts
  • W20 SepA · St. Truiden2–00.9 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Standard Liege4–21.4 xPts
  • W5 SepA · KV Mechelen4–01.0 xPts
  • D30 AugH · Zulte Waregem2–21.0 xPts
Charleroi
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KVC Westerlo Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct5.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km82 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways96 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one13.214

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KVC Westerlo Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Antwerp (H) 5–1, 11 Oct
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega 4A. Lapage 5Seiji Kimura 2L. Flø
14C. Sandra 45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito 13I. Sakamoto 39T. Van den Keybus
9N. Bassette
Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KVC Westerlo No reported absences
Charleroi No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Charleroi+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

KVC Westerlo · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.50
Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentKVC WesterloCharleroi
Standard Liege W 4–2 H W 1–0 A
KV Mechelen W 4–0 A W 2–0 H
Zulte Waregem D 2–2 H W 1–0 A
Lommel United L 0–4 A W 1–0 A
Union St. Gilloise L 1–5 H L 2–3 H
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game12 of 15 · 2.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws3 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.17 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 16 May 2026Charleroi0–1KVC Westerlo
  • 5 Apr 2026KVC Westerlo2–0Charleroi
  • 22 Feb 2026KVC Westerlo2–1Charleroi
  • 8 Nov 2025Charleroi2–0KVC Westerlo
  • 1 Mar 2024KVC Westerlo0–1Charleroi
  • 25 Nov 2023Charleroi3–2KVC Westerlo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KVC WesterloCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 2.502.00
Conceded per game 2.130.88
Match goals 4.632.88 3.16
Over 1.5 100%63%
Over 2.5 88%50% 61%
Over 3.5 88%50%
Both teams scored 63%50% 64%
Clean sheets 25%50%
Failed to score 13%0%
Games88
KVC WesterloCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 2.101.60
Conceded per game 1.901.00
Match goals 4.002.60 3.16
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 80%40% 61%
Over 3.5 70%40%
Both teams scored 60%40% 64%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KVC WesterloCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won3.505.50
Corners conceded5.754.38
Match total9.259.8810.01
Over 8.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 10.525% 2/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.251.13
Opponent cards1.631.38
Match total2.882.513.36
Over 3.538% 3/825% 2/8
Over 4.538% 3/80% 0/8
KVC WesterloCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won3.906.50
Corners conceded5.304.70
Match total9.2011.2010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 10.530% 3/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.401.40
Opponent cards1.801.40
Match total3.202.803.36
Over 3.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

KVC Westerlo8 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
6 0-15
1 4 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 4 76-90
Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
7 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 5 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
5 4 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege SK Beveren Nov 619:45 KVC Westerlo Charleroi Nov 715:00 OH Leuven KV Mechelen Nov 717:15 Antwerp Lommel United Nov 719:45 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge Nov 719:45 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht Nov 812:30 Gent Kortrijk Nov 815:00 Union St. Gilloise Genk Nov 817:30 St. Truiden Zulte Waregem Nov 818:15