Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were clear favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Chelsea. Chelsea had 10.8 days of rest, Burnley 9.8 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days10.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Chelsea78%
Draw14%
Burnley8%
Chelsea68%
Draw20%
Burnley12%
Chelsea78%
Draw14%
Burnley8%
Chelsea71%
Draw17%
Burnley12%
Chelsea76%
Draw15%
Burnley9%
Over 2.5 74%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeLewis Smith
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 52
Team strength
Chelsea
Burnley
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
77
AttackIn forecast
27
74
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaBurnley
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.96
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
92%
Scored inContext
65%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
13.69
ShotsContext
9.00
4.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.45
35%
On target shareContext
33%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.35
69%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.06
OffsidesContext
1.90
10.92
Shots allowedContext
16.69
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.85
3.17
BlocksContext
5.14
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
72%
Save rateContext
66%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
537
PassesContext
379
467
Accurate passesContext
296
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.08
FoulsContext
9.92
12.08
Fouls sufferedContext
9.08
2.35
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.80
ShotsContext
10.60
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
41%
On target shareContext
26%
10.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
69%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.60
Shots allowedContext
18.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.80
BlocksContext
6.25
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
74%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
614
PassesContext
429
549
Accurate passesContext
346
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.40
FoulsContext
9.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest10.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel292 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 363 km | 583 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
27M. Gusto
23T. Chalobah
29W. Fofana
24R. James
17Andrey Santos
25M. Caicedo
7Pedro Neto
8E. Fernández
10C. Palmer
20João Pedro
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
5M. Estève
4J. Worrall
2K. Walker
12B. Humphreys
28H. Mejbri
8L. Ugochukwu
29J. Laurent
11J. Anthony
10M. Edwards
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Burnley-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
1.69points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.15
Burnley · Away
0.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-9
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 2.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| West Ham | W 3–2 HW 5–1 A | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–1 AD 0–0 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Newcastle | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Tottenham | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Brighton | L 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Points | 41 of 75 · 1.64 per game | 18 of 75 · 0.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Chelsea wins2 draws0 Burnley wins
Goals per game2.57 – 0.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025Burnley0–2Chelsea
- 30 Mar 2024Chelsea2–2Burnley
- 7 Oct 2023Burnley1–4Chelsea
- 5 Mar 2022Burnley0–4Chelsea
- 6 Nov 2021Chelsea1–1Burnley
- 31 Jan 2021Chelsea2–0Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.96 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 3.04 | 3.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 54% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 58% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 35% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Chelsea | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.80 | 3.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.96 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.24 | 5.73 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.11 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 20/25 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 72% 18/25 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 12/25 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.15 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 2.92 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 16/26 | 15% 4/26 | |
| Chelsea | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 7.60 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.10 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lewis Smith 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.72
Red cards0.08league 0.11
Cards 5+27%league 38%
Fouls21.2league 21.3
Penalties0.23league 0.22
Home wins58%league 43%
ChelseaNo previous matches with this referee.
Burnley1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L24 Feb 24A · Crystal Palace0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea26 games · scored 47 · conceded 30
5
6
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
12
3
46-60
7
5
61-75
8
8
76-90
Burnley26 games · scored 28 · conceded 51
2
9
0-15
5
5
16-30
6
13
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
12
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
