Chelsea vs Leeds – 10 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 26 Tue, Feb 10 · 19:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 5th · 43 pts · 25 played LWWWW

2–2Full time

Leeds 16th · 29 pts · 25 played LWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were clear favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Chelsea. Chelsea had 3.2 days of rest, Leeds 4 and had to travel 272 km.

Away travel272 kmRest days3.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Chelsea67%

Draw18%

Leeds15%

Expected goals 2.48 – 1.09

Chelsea59%

Draw23%

Leeds18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.95

Chelsea67%

Draw19%

Leeds15%

Expected goals 2.43 – 1.08

Chelsea59%

Draw21%

Leeds20%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.22

Chelsea65%

Draw20%

Leeds15%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.02

Over 2.5 69% Both score 61% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 137

Team strength

Chelsea

Leeds

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

77 AttackIn forecast 69

74 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Leeds

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36

1.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

92% Scored inContext 72%

36% Clean sheetsContext 16%

13.48 ShotsContext 12.52

4.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.04

36% On target shareContext 32%

9.42 Shots in the boxContext 8.72

69% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.94 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.08

4.04 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.22 BlocksContext 3.65

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

72% Save rateContext 63%

58% PossessionIn forecast 46%

533 PassesContext 406

462 Accurate passesContext 325

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.16 FoulsContext 10.04

12.04 Fouls sufferedContext 11.28

2.28 Yellow cardsContext 1.48

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

100% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.60 ShotsContext 13.30

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

41% On target shareContext 38%

10.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

70% Box shareContext 73%

16% ConversionContext 13%

1.29 OffsidesContext 2.71

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

73% Save rateContext 63%

60% PossessionIn forecast 48%

606 PassesContext 414

538 Accurate passesContext 329

89% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.00 FoulsContext 8.70

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel272 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb	4Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	10.8	10.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 34J. Acheampong 27M. Gusto

17Andrey Santos 25M. Caicedo

8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer 41Estêvão

20João Pedro

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

5-4-1

26K. Darlow(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 6J. Rodon 15J. Bijol 23S. Bornauw 24J. Justin

11B. Aaronson 44I. Gruev 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

14L. Nmecha

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Leeds-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.75points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-3
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.08

Leeds · Away 0.58points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Leeds
Wolves	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H	W 3–1 A
West Ham	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A	W 2–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H	W 4–1 H
Brentford	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 H	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	L 0–2 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H
Brighton	L 1–3 H	L 0–3 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Points	43 of 72 · 1.79 per game	26 of 72 · 1.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Chelsea wins1 draws2 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.38 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

3 Dec 2025Leeds3–1Chelsea
28 Feb 2024Chelsea3–2Leeds
4 Mar 2023Chelsea1–0Leeds
21 Aug 2022Leeds3–0Chelsea
11 May 2022Leeds0–3Chelsea
11 Dec 2021Chelsea3–2Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.36
Conceded per game	1.12	1.72
Match goals	2.92	3.08	3.57
Over 1.5	88%	80%
Over 2.5	64%	60%	69%
Over 3.5	36%	44%
Both teams scored	64%	64%	61%
Clean sheets	36%	16%
Failed to score	8%	28%
Games	25	25

	Chelsea	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	3.30	2.90	3.57
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	69%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	6.04	4.83
Corners conceded	4.38	4.61
Match total	10.42	9.44	9.98
Over 8.5	83% 20/24	65% 15/23
Over 9.5	75% 18/24	52% 12/23
Over 10.5	50% 12/24	35% 8/23
Cards
Cards	2.48	1.48
Opponent cards	2.32	1.64
Match total	4.80	3.12	3.86
Over 3.5	64% 16/25	36% 9/25
Over 4.5	60% 15/25	28% 7/25

	Chelsea	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	5.60
Corners conceded	4.10	6.20
Match total	10.80	11.80	9.98
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.20
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	4.40	2.80	3.86
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 137 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.99league 3.72

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 38%

Fouls22.8league 21.3

Penalties0.23league 0.22

Home wins46%league 44%

Chelsea10 with this referee

Record4-3-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 2

W30 Aug 25H · Fulham2–02
D14 Jan 25H · Bournemouth2–22
D3 Nov 24A · Manchester United1–12
W2 May 24H · Tottenham2–00
D7 Apr 24A · Sheffield Utd2–22

Leeds8 with this referee

Record3-1-4 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 1

L23 Nov 25H · Aston Villa1–25
L9 Mar 25A · Portsmouth0–10
W4 Apr 23H · Nottingham Forest2–11
L5 Feb 23A · Nottingham Forest0–12
L3 Sep 22A · Brentford2–52

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.