Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Chelsea67.2%fair odds 1.49
Draw18.2%fair odds 5.48
Leeds14.5%fair odds 6.89
Expected goals2.48 – 1.09total 3.57
Likeliest score2–19.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Chelsea ↓ · Leeds → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Chelsea goals, columns Leeds goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%10.59
- 2–08.6%11.57
- 1–18.0%12.46
- 3–17.8%12.83
- 3–07.1%14.01
- 1–06.6%15.21
- 2–25.2%19.39
- 4–14.8%20.71
- 4–04.4%22.63
- 3–24.3%23.48
Winning margin
26.2%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 3.81
19.6%
Chelsea by 2
fair 5.10
21.4%
Chelsea by 1
fair 4.68
18.2%
Draw
fair 5.48
9.2%
Leeds by 1
fair 10.87
3.8%
Leeds by 2
fair 26.22
1.5%
Leeds by 3+
fair 66.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
Chelsea goals
8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+
Leeds goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 67.2% | 64.9% | +2.3 pp |
| Draw | 18.2% | 19.8% | -1.6 pp |
| Leeds win | 14.5% | 15.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 63.7% | +5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.3% | 57.8% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 2.48 | 2.26 | +0.21 |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.09 | 1.02 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Chelsea win67.2%1.49
- Draw18.2%5.48
- Leeds win14.5%6.89
- Double chance Chelsea or draw85.5%1.17
- Double chance Chelsea or Leeds81.8%1.22
- Double chance Leeds or draw32.8%3.05
- Draw no bet Chelsea82.2%1.22
- Draw no bet Leeds17.8%5.63
Goals
- Over 0.596.8%1.03
- Over 1.587.5%1.14
- Over 2.569.2%1.45
- Over 3.547.8%2.09
- Over 4.528.8%3.48
- Under 1.512.5%8.02
- Under 2.530.8%3.25
- Under 3.552.2%1.92
Both teams to score
- Yes61.3%1.63
- No38.7%2.58
- Yes and over 2.553.3%1.88
- Chelsea win and yes36.9%2.71
- Draw and yes15.0%6.65
- Leeds win and yes9.3%10.70
Team goals
- Chelsea over 0.591.6%1.09
- Chelsea over 1.570.8%1.41
- Chelsea over 2.545.0%2.22
- Leeds over 0.566.5%1.50
- Leeds over 1.529.8%3.35
- Leeds over 2.59.8%10.20
- Chelsea clean sheet33.5%2.98
- Leeds clean sheet8.4%11.91
- Chelsea win to nil30.3%3.30
- Leeds win to nil5.2%19.32
Handicap
- Chelsea −1.545.9%2.18
- Chelsea −2.526.2%3.81
- Leeds +1.554.1%1.85
- Leeds +2.573.8%1.36
- Leeds −1.55.3%18.80
- Chelsea +1.594.7%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored250
Favourite won50.4%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.614
Over 2.5 called right54.4%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 36 | 38.2% | 41.7% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 54.5% | 51.5% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 63.9% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 73.4% | 65.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 220 of 250 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6152 | 0.6020 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 220 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 250 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.