Chelsea
Attack+4%
Defense risk−12%
Our take
Chelsea are slight favourites.
Chelsea are the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Chelsea have 7.2 days of rest, Tottenham 4.9 and have to travel 0 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.2 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Chelsea55%
Draw22%
Tottenham23%
Chelsea55%
Draw24%
Tottenham21%
Chelsea55%
Draw22%
Tottenham23%
Chelsea46%
Draw24%
Tottenham30%
Chelsea54%
Draw23%
Tottenham23%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
10°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 61%
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 78%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Tottenham. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Chelsea
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Chelsea
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Chelsea
−0.30
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.20xG against1.50
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Chelsea
Tottenham
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
77
AttackIn forecast
56
74
DefenceIn forecast
74
69
Form indexContext
58
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack−2%
Defense risk+7%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
ChelseaTottenham
2.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+1.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.60
86%
Scored inContext
33%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.29
ShotsContext
13.83
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
39%
On target shareContext
27%
9.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
63%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
4%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.43
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.67
BlocksContext
4.00
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
432
PassesContext
531
361
Accurate passesContext
466
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.29
FoulsContext
13.67
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.90
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
13.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
40%
On target shareContext
25%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
60%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.50
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.44
BlocksContext
3.30
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
74%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
442
PassesContext
500
370
Accurate passesContext
433
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.50
FoulsContext
13.90
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
LDLWW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 4.9Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato
6L. Colwill
5M. Lacroix
34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson
25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers
10C. Palmer
7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
No reported absences
Tottenham
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Tottenham · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Brentford | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
8 Chelsea wins1 draws1 Tottenham wins
Goals per game2.10 – 0.90
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets50% · 10%
- 19 May 2026Chelsea2–1Tottenham
- 1 Nov 2025Tottenham0–1Chelsea
- 3 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Tottenham
- 8 Dec 2024Tottenham3–4Chelsea
- 2 May 2024Chelsea2–0Tottenham
- 6 Nov 2023Tottenham1–4Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.43 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 4.29 | 2.29 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Chelsea | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.20 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 6.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 11.29 | 11.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 3.72 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Chelsea | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 7.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 11.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 4.20 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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