Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played WLDWL

VS— Compare

Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played DLWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace are slight favourites.

Newcastle are the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace have 2.8 days of rest, Newcastle 7.9 and have to travel 398 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel398 kmRest days2.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Crystal Palace44%

Draw23%

Newcastle32%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.58

Crystal Palace39%

Draw27%

Newcastle34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

Crystal Palace44%

Draw23%

Newcastle32%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.58

Crystal Palace36%

Draw23%

Newcastle40%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.78

Crystal Palace44%

Draw24%

Newcastle32%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.49

Over 2.5 67% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

16°CDrizzle

Precipitation 7%
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 91%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Newcastle

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

64 AttackIn forecast 61

54 DefenceIn forecast 61

64 Form indexContext 35

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack+13%

Defense risk−9%

Newcastle

Attack+20%

Defense risk−9%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Newcastle

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

57% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

10.14 ShotsContext 12.29

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

37% On target shareContext 29%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.57

70% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.71

17.86 Shots allowedContext 17.43

6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

5.29 BlocksContext 7.57

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

61% Save rateContext 62%

43% PossessionIn forecast 52%

404 PassesContext 430

326 Accurate passesContext 359

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.00 FoulsContext 12.14

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.71

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.40

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 32%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

71% Box shareContext 59%

15% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.44

16.30 Shots allowedContext 17.50

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

4.70 BlocksContext 6.90

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

63% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

416 PassesContext 452

341 Accurate passesContext 380

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.50 FoulsContext 11.00

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace WDWLL

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km6,618 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts

Newcastle DLWLL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km571 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected

L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	7.9Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,618 km	571 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	8.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct

44W. Benítez(G)

21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot

3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili

10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada

22J. Strand Larsen

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct

21L. Horníček(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

7Joelinton 6Nico González

11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo

9Y. Wissa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace No reported absences

Newcastle No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Newcastle+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.67

Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Leeds	D 0–0 A	L 1–4 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Crystal Palace wins4 draws4 Newcastle wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.50 Over 2.530% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 60%

12 Apr 2026Crystal Palace2–1Newcastle
4 Jan 2026Newcastle2–0Crystal Palace
16 Apr 2025Newcastle5–0Crystal Palace
30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace1–1Newcastle
24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–0Newcastle
21 Oct 2023Newcastle4–0Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.43
Conceded per game	2.43	2.00
Match goals	3.71	3.43	3.46
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	71%	67%
Over 3.5	71%	57%
Both teams scored	57%	71%	68%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	43%	14%
Games	7	7

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	2.20	1.80
Match goals	3.80	3.20	3.46
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	67%
Over 3.5	70%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	68%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.57
Corners conceded	6.00	5.29
Match total	9.67	9.86	9.49
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.43	2.71
Opponent cards	1.57	2.14
Match total	3.00	4.85	4.17
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.80
Corners conceded	5.22	4.60
Match total	9.11	9.40	9.49
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	3.60	4.40	4.17
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.