Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 13th · 7 pts · 7 played DLDDD

VS— Compare

Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played DDLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Manchester United have 3.9 days of rest, Bournemouth 2.8 and have to travel 308 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel308 kmRest days3.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Manchester United40%

Draw24%

Bournemouth36%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.56

Manchester United46%

Draw26%

Bournemouth28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Manchester United40%

Draw24%

Bournemouth36%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.56

Manchester United32%

Draw24%

Bournemouth44%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.75

Manchester United40%

Draw25%

Bournemouth35%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.45

Over 2.5 62% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

14°CDrizzle

Precipitation 77%
Wind 27 km/h
Humidity 74%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Manchester United

Bournemouth

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

72 AttackIn forecast 83

80 DefenceIn forecast 82

38 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack−10%

Defense risk+17%

Bournemouth

Attack−8%

Defense risk+2%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Manchester United

Bournemouth

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

71% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 14%

19.57 ShotsContext 15.14

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14

26% On target shareContext 34%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.57

55% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.00 Shots allowedContext 9.57

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

2.86 BlocksContext 2.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

68% Save rateContext 55%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

521 PassesContext 433

450 Accurate passesContext 351

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.57 FoulsContext 13.00

11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.60 ShotsContext 15.80

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

31% On target shareContext 32%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

60% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.00 Shots allowedContext 10.30

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.20 BlocksContext 3.29

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

69% Save rateContext 61%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

507 PassesContext 434

439 Accurate passesContext 353

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.00 FoulsContext 12.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United LDDLD

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,383 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected

D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts

Bournemouth WLLWW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,383 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct

1S. Lammens(G)

2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro

20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos

8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo

19B. Mbeumo

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan

9Evanilson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United No reported absences

Bournemouth No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Bournemouth+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Bournemouth · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Bournemouth
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Everton	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Manchester United wins4 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.88 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

20 Mar 2026Bournemouth2–2Manchester United
15 Dec 2025Manchester United4–4Bournemouth
27 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–1Manchester United
22 Dec 2024Manchester United0–3Bournemouth
13 Apr 2024Bournemouth2–2Manchester United
9 Dec 2023Manchester United0–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.29
Conceded per game	1.43	1.86
Match goals	2.86	3.14	3.22
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	29%	57%	62%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	71%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	14%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.50
Match goals	2.90	3.00	3.22
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	6.14	4.71
Corners conceded	3.57	3.86
Match total	9.71	8.57	9.49
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.71	3.00
Opponent cards	2.86	1.57
Match total	4.57	4.57	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	4.60
Corners conceded	3.22	4.60
Match total	9.11	9.20	9.49
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.80
Match total	3.90	4.60	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.