Hull City
Attack−1%
Defense risk0%
Our take
Brentford are slight favourites.
Brentford are the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Hull City have 8 days of rest, Brentford 8 and have to travel 251 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel251 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hull City25%
Draw24%
Brentford51%
Hull City22%
Draw25%
Brentford53%
Hull City25%
Draw24%
Brentford51%
Hull City19%
Draw22%
Brentford59%
Hull City25%
Draw24%
Brentford50%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hull)
13°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 18%
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 65%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Hull City and Brentford. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Brentford
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Brentford
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Brentford
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
-
Trend
Brentford
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Brentford
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Brentford
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
Team strength
Hull CityBrentford
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
37
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
37
AttackIn forecast
73
50
DefenceIn forecast
73
36
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrentford
Attack+25%
Defense risk−33%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Hull CityBrentford
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
71%
Scored inContext
100%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.71
ShotsContext
15.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
32%
On target shareContext
28%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.43
45%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.60
14.57
Shots allowedContext
15.43
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.29
BlocksContext
4.43
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
77%
Save rateContext
71%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
275
PassesContext
367
197
Accurate passesContext
283
72%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.86
FoulsContext
14.71
7.57
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
13.40
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
27%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
50%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.80
Shots allowedContext
17.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
4.10
BlocksContext
5.30
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
77%
Save rateContext
72%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
267
PassesContext
369
182
Accurate passesContext
286
68%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.10
FoulsContext
13.30
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hull City
DDLDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km498 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Brentford
DDWDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel251 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hull City |
Brentford |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 251 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 498 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hull City
Last XI · not confirmed
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy
22L. Herrington
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Brentford
Last XI · not confirmed
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
4S. van den Berg
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony
8M. Jensen
11D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hull City
No reported absences
Brentford
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Hull City+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Brentford+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Hull City · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Brentford · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Hull City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hull City | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Hull City | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hull City | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.71 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 10.42 | 9.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.86 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Hull City | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.90 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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