Coventry
Attack+7%
Defense risk−4%
Premier League
Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Fulham are the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 52). Coventry have 4.8 days of rest, Fulham 7 and have to travel 138 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel138 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Coventry36%
Draw25%
Fulham39%
Coventry36%
Draw27%
Fulham37%
Coventry36%
Draw25%
Fulham39%
Coventry29%
Draw24%
Fulham47%
Coventry37%
Draw26%
Fulham38%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)
11°COvercast
- Precipitation 82%
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 55%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Coventry and Fulham. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Coventry
Fulham
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
47
AttackIn forecast
66
59
DefenceIn forecast
68
64
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack+17%
Defense risk−21%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
CoventryFulham
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.62
43%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.29
ShotsContext
14.71
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
64%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.43
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
6.83
BlocksContext
4.43
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
46%
Save rateContext
66%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
323
PassesContext
564
247
Accurate passesContext
486
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.00
FoulsContext
10.43
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.43
1.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
15.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
62%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.11
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.78
BlocksContext
3.89
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
49%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
380
PassesContext
548
304
Accurate passesContext
472
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.70
FoulsContext
10.60
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Coventry
LLWWL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Fulham
LDDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel138 km215 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Coventry |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Oct | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 276 km | 215 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Coventry
Last XI · not confirmed
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante
5J. Rudoni
7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif
Fulham
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Coventry
No reported absences
Fulham
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Coventry+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fulham+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Coventry · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Fulham · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Coventry | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Coventry wins0 draws0 Fulham wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Apr 2022Fulham1–3Coventry
- 2 Oct 2021Coventry4–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Coventry | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.43 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Coventry | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.20 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 30% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 30% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Coventry | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 6.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 10.72 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 2.72 | 3.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Coventry | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.90 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.40 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Fulham7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures Premier League
View all fixtures →
Ipswich
Nottingham Forest
Oct 2320:00
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Oct 2412:30
Arsenal
Everton
Oct 2415:00
Coventry
Fulham
Oct 2415:00
Chelsea
Tottenham
Oct 2417:30
Liverpool
Brighton
Oct 2514:00
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Oct 2514:00
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Oct 2514:00
Hull City
Brentford
Oct 2514:00
Sunderland
Leeds
Oct 2516:30