Sunderland vs Leeds – 25 Oct 2026

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 16:30 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 20th · 4 pts · 7 played DLLLL

VS— Compare

Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played DWDLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Leeds are the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland have 3 days of rest, Leeds 7.1 and have to travel 124 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel124 kmRest days3 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Sunderland36%

Draw25%

Leeds39%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.62

Sunderland33%

Draw27%

Leeds39%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Sunderland36%

Draw25%

Leeds39%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.62

Sunderland29%

Draw24%

Leeds47%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.81

Sunderland36%

Draw25%

Leeds39%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.54

Over 2.5 61% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 33 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

11°CDrizzle

Precipitation 31%
Wind 38 km/h
Humidity 68%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Leeds 71% Both teams scored Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sunderland

Leeds

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

62 AttackIn forecast 69

59 DefenceIn forecast 77

56 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack−5%

Defense risk−4%

Leeds

Attack+16%

Defense risk−11%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Sunderland

Leeds

0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

57% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.57 ShotsContext 12.00

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 33%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

62% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.43

14.57 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.29 BlocksContext 5.17

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

46% Save rateContext 86%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

400 PassesContext 385

316 Accurate passesContext 302

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.43 FoulsContext 12.71

14.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.40 ShotsContext 11.50

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

30% On target shareContext 31%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

65% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.40

12.40 Shots allowedContext 14.90

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.90 BlocksContext 4.89

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

52% Save rateContext 77%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

395 PassesContext 376

316 Accurate passesContext 292

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.70 FoulsContext 11.90

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland WLLWL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km6,950 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts

Leeds DWDLD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel124 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	124 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,950 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume

57T. Tuterov

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 18A. Stach

9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland No reported absences

Leeds No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Leeds+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.33

Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Sunderland	Leeds
Brighton	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Arsenal	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Brentford	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Sunderland wins3 draws1 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%

3 Mar 2026Leeds0–1Sunderland
28 Dec 2025Sunderland1–1Leeds
17 Feb 2025Leeds2–1Sunderland
4 Oct 2024Sunderland2–2Leeds
9 Apr 2024Leeds0–0Sunderland
12 Dec 2023Sunderland1–0Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	0.86	1.29
Conceded per game	2.00	0.86
Match goals	2.86	2.14	3.17
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	29%	29%	61%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	71%	64%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	43%	14%
Games	7	7

	Sunderland	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.00
Match goals	2.70	2.10	3.17
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	61%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	4.00
Corners conceded	4.14	4.14
Match total	8.43	8.14	9.49
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.14	1.86
Opponent cards	1.71	2.43
Match total	3.85	4.29	4.17
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7

	Sunderland	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.10
Corners conceded	3.80	5.70
Match total	9.20	9.80	9.49
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.60	3.80	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.