Como vs Manchester United

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Wed, Oct 21 · 17:45 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Como 12th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

VS— Compare

Manchester United 13th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Manchester United are the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. Como are without T. Chalobah. Manchester United are without L. Shaw and K. Mainoo. Como have 3.2 days of rest, Manchester United 3.2 and have to travel 1,177 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,177 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Como41%

Draw24%

Manchester United34%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.53

Como34%

Draw27%

Manchester United38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.38

Como40%

Draw25%

Manchester United35%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.51

Como33%

Draw24%

Manchester United42%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.71

Como40%

Draw25%

Manchester United35%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.49

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 10 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Como)

16°CLight rain

Precipitation 68%
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 88%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Como

Manchester United

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

72 AttackIn forecast 72

67 DefenceIn forecast 80

50 Form indexContext 38

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack−27%

Defense risk+30%

Manchester United

Attack+12%

Defense risk+2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Como

Manchester United

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.50 ShotsContext 14.00

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

44% On target shareContext 46%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

58% Box shareContext 73%

24% ConversionContext 14%

— OffsidesContext —

13.50 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

67% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

542 PassesContext 490

490 Accurate passesContext 435

90% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.50 FoulsContext 12.50

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.00 ShotsContext 17.60

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

34% On target shareContext 31%

12.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

63% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 10%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.70 BlocksContext 3.20

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

69% Save rateContext 69%

60% PossessionIn forecast 53%

571 PassesContext 507

513 Accurate passesContext 439

90% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.89

9.70 FoulsContext 10.00

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como WLDLW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,082 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts

Manchester United LDDLD

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,177 km3,029 km in 14d

Schedule load45%High

Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected

D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Como	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 28	High · 45
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Oct	3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,177 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,082 km	3,029 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali

9A. Douvikas

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct

1S. Lammens(G)

2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro

20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos

8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo

19B. Mbeumo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Como Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −15.5% · Defence line −12.3% of weighted minutes

DEF T. Chalobah Starter 6.81 Def −10.8%
ATT Assane Diao Rotation 6.94 Att −6.6%
MID M. Caqueret Rotation 6.79 Att −3.2% Def −1.5%
ATT M. Kean Rotation 6.68 Att −3.7%
ATT J. Addai Rotation 6.90 Att −2.1%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): E. Goldaniga, W. Kambwala, A. Lahdo

Manchester United Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −14.7% · Defence line −24.8% of weighted minutes

DEF L. Shaw Starter 6.74 Def −13.0%
MID K. Mainoo Starter 7.00 Att −8.0% Def −4.6%
DEF L. Yoro Rotation 6.63 Def −3.7%
ATT B. Šeško Rotation 6.82 Att −5.4%
DEF P. Dorgu Rotation 6.88 Def −2.8%
MID M. Ugarte Rotation 6.69 Att −1.3% Def −0.7%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): T. Heaton

Total impact vs full squads

Como+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Manchester United-0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Como · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

Manchester United · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Como	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	3.00	3.21
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	62%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Como	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	3.40	2.90	3.21
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	62%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Como	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	2.00
Match total	6.00	7.00	9.71
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	5.00	3.00	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2

	Como	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.89
Corners conceded	4.40	3.22
Match total	10.10	9.11	9.71
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.60
Opponent cards	2.70	2.30
Match total	4.30	3.90	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.