Crystal Palace vs Leeds – 15 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 14th · 38 pts · 29 played WLWLW

0–0Full time

Leeds 15th · 31 pts · 29 played WDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Leeds. Crystal Palace had 9.8 days of rest, Leeds 11.8 and had to travel 272 km.

Away travel272 kmRest days9.8 · 11.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Crystal Palace42%

Draw27%

Leeds31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.21

Crystal Palace43%

Draw27%

Leeds30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Crystal Palace41%

Draw27%

Leeds32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Crystal Palace35%

Draw27%

Leeds38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.35

Crystal Palace41%

Draw28%

Leeds31%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.15

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 105

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Leeds

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

64 AttackIn forecast 69

54 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Leeds

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.28

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.66

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

72% Scored inContext 69%

34% Clean sheetsContext 14%

11.66 ShotsContext 12.52

3.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

33% On target shareContext 31%

8.68 Shots in the boxContext 8.55

73% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.16 OffsidesContext 2.23

11.55 Shots allowedContext 12.21

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.12 BlocksContext 3.78

3.31 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

71% Save rateContext 64%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

393 PassesContext 400

307 Accurate passesContext 319

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.66 FoulsContext 10.52

9.45 Fouls sufferedContext 11.34

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.59

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.10 ShotsContext 13.10

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

32% On target shareContext 34%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

74% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 3.00

8.70 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.88 BlocksContext 3.50

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

72% Save rateContext 61%

58% PossessionIn forecast 47%

502 PassesContext 396

415 Accurate passesContext 317

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.10 FoulsContext 11.00

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest11.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel272 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Mar	11.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	28	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

44W. Benítez(G)

23J. Canvot 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 8J. Lerma 19W. Hughes 11B. Johnson

29E. Guessand 7I. Sarr

22J. Strand Larsen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

26K. Darlow(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

3G. Gudmundsson 18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 24J. Justin

11B. Aaronson

14L. Nmecha 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.06 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Leeds-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.07points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 3-6-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.29

Leeds · Away 0.64points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 1-6-7
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Leeds
Tottenham	W 3–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Wolves	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 3–1 A
Burnley	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Brighton	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 0–3 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A
Chelsea	L 1–3 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Aston Villa	D 0–0 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H
Fulham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Brentford	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 A	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A
Bournemouth	D 3–3 H	D 2–2 H
Everton	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H
West Ham	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Points	38 of 84 · 1.36 per game	28 of 84 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Crystal Palace wins1 draws3 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.71 – 1.43 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets14% · 43%

20 Dec 2025Leeds4–1Crystal Palace
9 Apr 2023Leeds1–5Crystal Palace
9 Oct 2022Crystal Palace2–1Leeds
25 Apr 2022Crystal Palace0–0Leeds
30 Nov 2021Leeds1–0Crystal Palace
8 Feb 2021Leeds2–0Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.28
Conceded per game	1.21	1.66
Match goals	2.34	2.93	2.66
Over 1.5	69%	76%
Over 2.5	48%	55%	50%
Over 3.5	17%	41%
Both teams scored	52%	62%	54%
Clean sheets	34%	14%
Failed to score	28%	31%
Games	29	29

	Crystal Palace	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.50	2.80	2.66
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.14	4.74
Corners conceded	4.90	4.52
Match total	9.04	9.26	10.01
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	63% 17/27
Over 9.5	41% 12/29	48% 13/27
Over 10.5	31% 9/29	33% 9/27
Cards
Cards	2.17	1.59
Opponent cards	2.00	1.79
Match total	4.17	3.38	3.90
Over 3.5	72% 21/29	41% 12/29
Over 4.5	59% 17/29	31% 9/29

	Crystal Palace	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.60
Corners conceded	4.00	5.80
Match total	9.00	10.40	10.01
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	4.70	4.00	3.90
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 105 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.70league 3.76

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls22.0league 21.6

Penalties0.19league 0.21

Home wins49%league 42%

Crystal Palace9 with this referee

Record4-3-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W8 Feb 26A · Brighton1–03
L20 Dec 25A · Leeds1–43
L26 Oct 25A · Arsenal0–10
D13 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–01
W18 Jan 25A · West Ham2–00

Leeds3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W20 Dec 25H · Crystal Palace4–11
L4 Oct 25H · Tottenham1–22
D5 Apr 25A · Luton1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.