Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace42.0%fair odds 2.38
Draw27.1%fair odds 3.69
Leeds30.8%fair odds 3.24
Expected goals1.45 – 1.21total 2.66
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Leeds → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Leeds goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.73
- 1–09.5%10.51
- 2–18.9%11.24
- 0–17.8%12.79
- 0–07.7%13.05
- 1–27.4%13.49
- 2–07.4%13.57
- 2–25.4%18.61
- 0–25.1%19.55
- 3–14.3%23.25
Winning margin
7.9%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 12.70
12.7%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 7.86
21.4%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.67
27.1%
Draw
fair 3.69
17.7%
Leeds by 1
fair 5.64
8.8%
Leeds by 2
fair 11.32
4.3%
Leeds by 3+
fair 23.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Crystal Palace goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Leeds goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 42.0% | 41.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Leeds win | 30.8% | 30.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 45.8% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.3% | 51.4% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 1.45 | 1.36 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.21 | 1.15 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win42.0%2.38
- Draw27.1%3.69
- Leeds win30.8%3.24
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw69.2%1.45
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Leeds72.9%1.37
- Double chance Leeds or draw58.0%1.73
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace57.7%1.73
- Draw no bet Leeds42.3%2.36
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.575.0%1.33
- Over 2.549.6%2.02
- Over 3.527.7%3.62
- Over 4.513.1%7.64
- Under 1.525.0%4.00
- Under 2.550.4%1.98
- Under 3.572.3%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes54.3%1.84
- No45.7%2.19
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.42
- Crystal Palace win and yes19.8%5.05
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Leeds win and yes15.0%6.65
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.576.5%1.31
- Crystal Palace over 1.542.5%2.35
- Crystal Palace over 2.517.9%5.60
- Leeds over 0.570.1%1.43
- Leeds over 1.534.0%2.94
- Leeds over 2.512.2%8.18
- Crystal Palace clean sheet29.9%3.35
- Leeds clean sheet23.5%4.26
- Crystal Palace win to nil22.2%4.50
- Leeds win to nil15.8%6.33
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.520.6%4.85
- Crystal Palace −2.57.9%12.70
- Leeds +1.579.4%1.26
- Leeds +2.592.1%1.09
- Leeds −1.513.1%7.64
- Crystal Palace +1.586.9%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored296
Favourite won49.3%
Avg chance given to result39.1%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right53.7%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.2% | 39.0% |
| 40–50% | 106 | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 85 | 54.8% | 51.8% |
| 60–70% | 38 | 64.2% | 57.9% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 73.6% | 56.5% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 241 of 296 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6256 | 0.6113 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 50.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 241 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 296 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.