Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace57.3%fair odds 1.75
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.24
Wolves19.2%fair odds 5.21
Expected goals1.86 – 0.99total 2.85
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Wolves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Wolves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Wolves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.93
- 1–010.2%9.83
- 2–010.0%10.00
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 0–06.3%15.82
- 3–06.2%16.10
- 3–16.2%16.25
- 1–25.3%18.98
- 0–15.1%19.45
- 2–24.9%20.37
Winning margin
15.8%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 6.31
17.8%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 5.63
23.6%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.23
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.24
12.3%
Wolves by 1
fair 8.13
5.0%
Wolves by 2
fair 19.91
1.9%
Wolves by 3+
fair 53.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Crystal Palace goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Wolves goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 57.3% | 56.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Wolves win | 19.2% | 19.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 51.6% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 51.8% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 1.86 | 1.78 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Wolves | 0.99 | 0.96 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win57.3%1.75
- Draw23.6%4.24
- Wolves win19.2%5.21
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw80.8%1.24
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Wolves76.4%1.31
- Double chance Wolves or draw42.7%2.34
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace74.9%1.34
- Draw no bet Wolves25.1%3.98
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.4%1.28
- Over 2.554.3%1.84
- Over 3.532.0%3.12
- Over 4.516.1%6.22
- Under 1.521.6%4.62
- Under 2.545.7%2.19
- Under 3.568.0%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.35
- Crystal Palace win and yes26.4%3.78
- Draw and yes17.2%5.80
- Wolves win and yes10.0%10.00
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.584.5%1.18
- Crystal Palace over 1.555.6%1.80
- Crystal Palace over 2.528.6%3.49
- Wolves over 0.562.9%1.59
- Wolves over 1.526.1%3.83
- Wolves over 2.57.9%12.72
- Crystal Palace clean sheet37.1%2.69
- Wolves clean sheet15.5%6.45
- Crystal Palace win to nil30.8%3.25
- Wolves win to nil9.2%10.88
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.533.6%2.98
- Crystal Palace −2.515.8%6.31
- Wolves +1.566.4%1.51
- Wolves +2.584.2%1.19
- Wolves −1.56.9%14.54
- Crystal Palace +1.593.1%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored266
Favourite won48.9%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.624
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right55.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.2% | 40.5% |
| 40–50% | 97 | 44.9% | 43.3% |
| 50–60% | 74 | 54.6% | 51.4% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 64.2% | 57.6% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.6% | 59.1% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 236 of 266 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6270 | 0.6134 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.8% |
| Favourite won | 48.3% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 236 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Manchester City 2–1 Newcastle56·21·23
- ✗West Ham 0–0 Bournemouth33·26·41
- ✗Aston Villa 1–1 Leeds56·23·21
- ✗Brentford 0–2 Brighton49·26·25
- ✗Chelsea 1–1 Burnley78·14·8
- ✗Wolves 2–2 Arsenal10·17·73
- ✗Brentford 1–1 Arsenal22·25·53
- ✓Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool21·23·56
- ✓Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton55·23·22
- ✗Nottingham Forest 0–0 Wolves58·23·19
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 266 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.