Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Crystal Palace were slight favourites.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 10.8 days of rest, Wolves 3.8 and had to travel 182 km.
Away travel182 kmRest days10.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Crystal Palace57%
Draw24%
Wolves19%
Crystal Palace56%
Draw24%
Wolves20%
Crystal Palace58%
Draw24%
Wolves19%
Crystal Palace50%
Draw26%
Wolves25%
Crystal Palace56%
Draw24%
Wolves20%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Kirk
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 30
Team strength
Crystal Palace
Wolves
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
64
AttackIn forecast
41
54
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceWolves
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.85
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
69%
Scored inContext
48%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
11.81
ShotsContext
9.15
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.27
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.84
Shots in the boxContext
5.92
73%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.19
Shots allowedContext
13.78
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.81
2.96
BlocksContext
4.57
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
67%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
389
PassesContext
377
302
Accurate passesContext
302
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.15
FoulsContext
13.48
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.26
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
11.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
39%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
77%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
3.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.90
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
2.89
BlocksContext
3.88
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
68%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
452
PassesContext
395
359
Accurate passesContext
325
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.90
FoulsContext
11.50
7.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest10.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Wolves
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel182 km154 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb | 3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 182 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 143 km | 154 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
34C. Riad
26Chris Richards
23J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell
19W. Hughes
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
10Yeremy Pino
7I. Sarr
22J. Strand Larsen
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
15Y. Mosquera
3Hugo Bueno
7André
27J. Bellegarde
38J. Tchatchoua
36Mateus Mané
9A. Armstrong
14T. Arokodare
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Wolves+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
0.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.38
Wolves · Away
0.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-9
- Scored
- 0.38
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| Brighton | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Fulham | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Leeds | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Everton | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 29 of 75 · 1.16 per game | 10 of 78 · 0.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
8 Crystal Palace wins1 draws1 Wolves wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 10%
- 22 Nov 2025Wolves0–2Crystal Palace
- 20 May 2025Crystal Palace4–2Wolves
- 2 Nov 2024Wolves2–2Crystal Palace
- 11 May 2024Wolves1–3Crystal Palace
- 3 Sep 2023Crystal Palace3–2Wolves
- 25 Apr 2023Wolves2–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.52 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 52% | |
| Games | 26 | 27 |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.85 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 9.60 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 13/26 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 3.63 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 18/26 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 14/26 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.70 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Kirk 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.74
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 21.4
Penalties0.13league 0.21
Home wins47%league 42%
Crystal Palace1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Dec 25A · Burnley1–00
Wolves1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Jan 26A · Everton1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace26 games · scored 28 · conceded 32
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
8
12
31-45
1
5
46-60
7
5
61-75
6
8
76-90
Wolves27 games · scored 18 · conceded 50
2
7
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
12
61-75
3
9
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
