Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK

Süper Lig Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 10:30 Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

Rizespor 12th · 10 pts · 8 played LWDLL

VS— Compare

Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played WLWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rizespor are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Rizespor have 7.9 days of rest, Erzurumspor FK 8 and have to travel 139 km.

Away travel139 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Rizespor44%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK29%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.14

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Rizespor44%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK29%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.14

Rizespor37%

Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK35%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.28

Rizespor44%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK29%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.15

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rize)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Insight Rizespor +0.33 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.36xG against1.03

Defence

Streaks

Streak Erzurumspor FK 3 Clean sheets in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheets in a row

Team strength

Rizespor

Erzurumspor FK

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

22 AttackIn forecast 17

35 DefenceIn forecast 38

17 Form indexContext 56

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rizespor

Attack−5%

Defense risk−14%

Erzurumspor FK

Attack0%

Defense risk−6%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Rizespor

Erzurumspor FK

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

63% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.00 ShotsContext 9.43

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

32% On target shareContext 35%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

57% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 8%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.50 Shots allowedContext 11.29

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

4.43 BlocksContext 2.20

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

74% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

434 PassesContext 409

367 Accurate passesContext 341

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.67

10.25 FoulsContext 11.71

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

60% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.50 ShotsContext 9.43

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

30% On target shareContext 35%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

59% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 8%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.10 Shots allowedContext 11.29

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

4.44 BlocksContext 2.20

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

71% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

433 PassesContext 409

367 Accurate passesContext 341

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.67

9.90 FoulsContext 11.71

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rizespor LWDLL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,226 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L16 OctA · Çorum FK1–21.0 xPts
L10 OctH · Fenerbahce0–30.9 xPts
D20 SepA · Goztepe2–21.3 xPts
W12 SepA · Eyüpspor2–01.5 xPts
L7 SepH · Alanyaspor0–11.8 xPts

Erzurumspor FK WLWDW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel139 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rizespor	Erzurumspor FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Oct	8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	139 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,226 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.1	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rizespor Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Çorum FK (A) 1–2, 16 Oct

75Y. Fofana(G)

17Z. Ariss 93M. Sagnan 21S. Bakayoko 54M. Pala

14T. Antalyalı

7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 11A. Awokoya-Mebude

9A. Sowe

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct

1M. Taşkıran(G)

15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı

65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye

20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rizespor No reported absences

Erzurumspor FK No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Rizespor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Erzurumspor FK+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rizespor · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Erzurumspor FK · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Rizespor	Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Alanyaspor	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 A
Samsunspor	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 H
Konyaspor	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Points	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Rizespor	Erzurumspor FK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	1.38	1.38
Match goals	2.38	2.00	2.63
Over 1.5	75%	63%
Over 2.5	50%	38%	49%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	13%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	50%
Failed to score	38%	50%
Games	8	8

	Rizespor	Erzurumspor FK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	1.70	1.38
Match goals	2.70	2.00	2.63
Over 1.5	80%	63%
Over 2.5	60%	38%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	13%
Both teams scored	40%	13%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rizespor	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	5.43	3.43
Corners conceded	3.86	3.14
Match total	9.29	6.57	9.12
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.88	1.38
Opponent cards	1.38	2.13
Match total	3.26	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Rizespor	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	3.43
Corners conceded	3.67	3.14
Match total	9.45	6.57	9.12
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.38
Opponent cards	1.40	2.13
Match total	3.00	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.