Goztepe vs Istanbul Basaksehir

Süper Lig Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 7 · 16:00 Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, İzmir

Goztepe 13th · 9 pts · 8 played LDDWW

VS— Compare

Istanbul Basaksehir 10th · 11 pts · 8 played LLWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Goztepe are slight favourites.

Istanbul Basaksehir are the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Goztepe. Goztepe have 7 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 6.1 and have to travel 328 km.

Away travel328 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Goztepe44%

Draw24%

Istanbul Basaksehir31%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.42

Goztepe39%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Goztepe44%

Draw24%

Istanbul Basaksehir31%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.42

Goztepe36%

Draw25%

Istanbul Basaksehir39%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.59

Goztepe45%

Draw24%

Istanbul Basaksehir30%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.42

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İzmir)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Goztepe 6 Scoring in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Goztepe

Istanbul Basaksehir

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

39 AttackIn forecast 32

36 DefenceIn forecast 35

37 Form indexContext 33

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Goztepe

Attack−3%

Defense risk+6%

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack+1%

Defense risk+7%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Goztepe

Istanbul Basaksehir

2.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

88% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 38%

15.25 ShotsContext 11.88

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

36% On target shareContext 34%

11.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.88

73% Box shareContext 54%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.38 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

5.43 BlocksContext 3.50

2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

61% Save rateContext 70%

41% PossessionIn forecast 52%

278 PassesContext 451

198 Accurate passesContext 383

71% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.88 FoulsContext 13.88

8.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.30 ShotsContext 12.30

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

34% On target shareContext 34%

12.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

74% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.80

14.80 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.78 BlocksContext 3.30

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

61% Save rateContext 72%

40% PossessionIn forecast 50%

266 PassesContext 431

190 Accurate passesContext 364

71% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.79

15.40 FoulsContext 14.20

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Goztepe LDDWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km656 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 8 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Kocaelispor2–11.4 xPts
W12 OctA · Eyüpspor4–01.6 xPts
D20 SepH · Rizespor2–21.4 xPts
D12 SepA · Alanyaspor2–21.2 xPts
L7 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–41.8 xPts

Istanbul Basaksehir LLWDW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel328 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W18 OctH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12.0 xPts
D11 OctA · Konyaspor0–01.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Genclerbirligi4–01.8 xPts
L13 SepA · Amed0–51.2 xPts
L4 SepH · Galatasaray2–31.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Goztepe	Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Oct	6.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	328 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	656 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	16

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Goztepe Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-1-2 · vs Kocaelispor (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

1A. Özçimen(G)

26M. Bokele 19J. Sonko Sundberg 4T. Altıkardeş

12R. Akonnor 20N. Miroshi 5Rhaldney 2A. Kurtulan

8A. Antunes

9Juan 7André Henrique

Istanbul Basaksehir Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

16M. Şengezer(G)

38S. Kharebashvili 27O. Ba 23E. Bayram 33M. Karbownik

18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen

77I. Brnić 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen

17U. Bozok

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Goztepe No reported absences

Istanbul Basaksehir No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Goztepe+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Goztepe · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Istanbul Basaksehir · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Goztepe	Istanbul Basaksehir
Kocaelispor	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 2–4 H	W 2–1 H
Galatasaray	L 2–3 A	L 2–3 H
Genclerbirligi	L 0–1 H	W 4–0 H
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Goztepe wins0 draws2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.75 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

7 Mar 2026Istanbul Basaksehir2–1Goztepe
5 Oct 2025Goztepe1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
28 Apr 2025Goztepe4–1Istanbul Basaksehir
30 Nov 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–1Goztepe

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Goztepe	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	2.13	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	4.13	3.00	3.15
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	88%	63%	61%
Over 3.5	75%	38%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	13%	38%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Goztepe	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.70
Conceded per game	2.00	1.30
Match goals	3.90	3.00	3.15
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	61%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Goztepe	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	4.88	4.25
Corners conceded	4.38	3.88
Match total	9.26	8.13	9.12
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.88
Match total	4.75	4.38	4.04
Over 3.5	88% 7/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Goztepe	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	3.90
Corners conceded	4.56	4.20
Match total	9.78	8.10	9.12
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.40
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	4.90	4.30	4.04
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.