Estoril vs Moreirense – 25 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

VS— Compare

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estoril are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estoril. Estoril have 14.8 days of rest, Moreirense 15.9 and have to travel 311 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel311 kmRest days14.8 · 15.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Estoril46%

Draw27%

Moreirense27%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.10

Estoril41%

Draw27%

Moreirense32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Estoril46%

Draw27%

Moreirense27%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.10

Estoril39%

Draw28%

Moreirense33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.23

Estoril47%

Draw26%

Moreirense28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.21

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

20°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 5%
Wind 19 km/h
Humidity 78%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Estoril

Moreirense

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

21 AttackIn forecast 17

29 DefenceIn forecast 27

10 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack+14%

Defense risk−20%

Moreirense

Attack+14%

Defense risk−13%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Estoril

Moreirense

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 0.51

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.47 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

50% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.88 ShotsContext 7.88

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

39% On target shareContext 35%

7.63 Shots in the boxContext 4.25

60% Box shareContext 55%

4% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext —

13.75 Shots allowedContext 15.13

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.86 BlocksContext 3.88

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

61% Save rateContext 58%

47% PossessionIn forecast 36%

402 PassesContext 324

322 Accurate passesContext 244

80% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.48

10.88 FoulsContext 13.63

13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 0.53

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

60% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 8.50

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

38% On target shareContext 33%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

61% Box shareContext 54%

5% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 14.20

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.78 BlocksContext 4.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

58% Save rateContext 56%

48% PossessionIn forecast 41%

411 PassesContext 364

333 Accurate passesContext 286

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.54

11.00 FoulsContext 12.70

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril LDLLL

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest15.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel311 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct	15.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril No reported absences

Moreirense No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Moreirense+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.25

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Moreirense
Casa Pia	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Arouca	D 0–0 H	L 0–4 A
Benfica	L 1–2 A	L 0–4 H
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Estoril wins3 draws3 Moreirense wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.17 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

20 Apr 2026Moreirense1–0Estoril
7 Dec 2025Estoril3–3Moreirense
11 May 2025Moreirense2–2Estoril
28 Dec 2024Estoril2–2Moreirense
18 May 2024Moreirense2–1Estoril
13 Jan 2024Estoril1–3Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.88
Match goals	2.00	2.88	2.61
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	50%	38%
Games	8	8

	Estoril	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	0.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.70
Match goals	2.20	2.50	2.61
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	2.50
Corners conceded	4.14	4.88
Match total	9.71	7.38	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	0% 0/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.75
Opponent cards	1.38	1.88
Match total	3.76	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8

	Estoril	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.30
Corners conceded	4.67	4.30
Match total	9.67	7.60	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.60
Opponent cards	1.60	1.80
Match total	4.00	4.40	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.