Sporting CP
Attack+9%
Defense risk−5%
Our take
Sporting CP are clear favourites.
Sporting CP are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Academico Viseu. Sporting CP have 4.1 days of rest, Academico Viseu 15 and have to travel 240 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel240 kmRest days4.1 · 15Matches / 14d2 · 0
Sporting CP78%
Draw14%
Academico Viseu8%
Sporting CP78%
Draw15%
Academico Viseu7%
Sporting CP78%
Draw14%
Academico Viseu8%
Sporting CP71%
Draw18%
Academico Viseu11%
Sporting CP78%
Draw14%
Academico Viseu8%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 41 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 12%
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 88%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sporting CP and Academico Viseu. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Streak
Academico Viseu
4
Wins in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Insight
Academico Viseu
−0.76
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 8-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.78
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sporting CP
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Academico Viseu
−0.76
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 8-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.78
Streaks
-
Streak
Academico Viseu
4
Wins in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Streak
Sporting CP
10+
Unbeaten in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Sporting CP
10+
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
Sporting CPAcademico Viseu
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
75
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
31
83
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAcademico Viseu
Attack−34%
Defense risk+61%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Sporting CPAcademico Viseu
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
44%
On target shareContext
35%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
67%
Box shareContext
59%
20%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.13
Shots allowedContext
17.25
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
2.14
BlocksContext
4.13
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
73%
Save rateContext
76%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
550
PassesContext
391
488
Accurate passesContext
320
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.50
FoulsContext
14.25
13.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.13
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
75%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.00
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
45%
On target shareContext
35%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
66%
Box shareContext
59%
21%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.40
Shots allowedContext
17.25
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
2.33
BlocksContext
4.13
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
81%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
521
PassesContext
391
457
Accurate passesContext
320
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.70
FoulsContext
14.25
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.13
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,213 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Academico Viseu
LWWWW
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel240 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Academico Viseu |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct | 15Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 240 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,213 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Academico Viseu
Last XI · not confirmed
98Ewerton(G)
3Miguel Brau
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
8C. Kahraman
47L. Gohi
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
No reported absences
Academico Viseu
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Academico Viseu+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Academico Viseu · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 2.63 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Sporting CP | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.63 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 63% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.29 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 6.86 | 8.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 14% 1/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.63 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Sporting CP | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 6.89 | 8.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.63 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Academico Viseu8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Academico Viseu8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
