Guimaraes
Attack+27%
Defense risk−22%
Our take
Guimaraes are slight favourites.
Guimaraes are the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Guimaraes. Guimaraes have 12.1 days of rest, Maritimo 13.1 and have to travel 1,237 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,237 kmRest days12.1 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Guimaraes58%
Draw24%
Maritimo19%
Guimaraes55%
Draw25%
Maritimo21%
Guimaraes58%
Draw24%
Maritimo19%
Guimaraes50%
Draw26%
Maritimo24%
Guimaraes58%
Draw23%
Maritimo19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
13°COvercast
- Precipitation 0%
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 71%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Guimaraes and Maritimo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
-
Trend
Maritimo
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
GuimaraesMaritimo
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
28
AttackIn forecast
15
39
DefenceIn forecast
20
13
Form indexContext
12
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMaritimo
Attack+4%
Defense risk−3%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
GuimaraesMaritimo
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
17.25
ShotsContext
10.00
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
23%
On target shareContext
33%
10.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
62%
Box shareContext
65%
4%
ConversionContext
11%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.13
Shots allowedContext
14.13
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.00
BlocksContext
3.57
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
62%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
449
PassesContext
366
370
Accurate passesContext
291
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.55
15.63
FoulsContext
15.25
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
40%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.90
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
23%
On target shareContext
30%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
62%
Box shareContext
64%
3%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
8.90
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.63
BlocksContext
3.33
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
62%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
448
PassesContext
372
370
Accurate passesContext
300
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.61
14.70
FoulsContext
16.00
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
LDLDL
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Maritimo
LLLDL
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,237 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 12 · 1 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Maritimo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 13.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,237 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 622 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Last XI · not confirmed
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
21T. Borevković
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
7O. Camara
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
9A. Jakupovic
Maritimo
Last XI · not confirmed
30Fran Vieites(G)
23Paulo Henrique
22G. Szalai
44Romain Correia
2Igor Julião
14R. Guzzo
21Ibrahim Alani
10Martín Tejón
8M. Dominguez
15Tomás Tavares
17Adrián Butzke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
No reported absences
Maritimo
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Maritimo · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Academico Viseu | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Guimaraes wins0 draws0 Maritimo wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 29 Apr 2023Maritimo1–2Guimaraes
- 13 Nov 2022Guimaraes1–0Maritimo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.88 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Guimaraes | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.88 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 75% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 75% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 13% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 2.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 7.38 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 3.88 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Guimaraes | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 7.90 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.40 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Guimaraes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Maritimo8 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
