Estrela vs Casa Pia – 24 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 24 · 15:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

VS— Compare

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estrela are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estrela. Estrela have 12.8 days of rest, Casa Pia 13.8 and have to travel. Conditions look neutral.

Rest days12.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estrela50%

Draw26%

Casa Pia24%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.05

Estrela45%

Draw27%

Casa Pia29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Estrela50%

Draw26%

Casa Pia24%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.05

Estrela43%

Draw27%

Casa Pia30%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.18

Estrela51%

Draw25%

Casa Pia24%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.14

Over 2.5 50% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

19°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0%
Wind 19 km/h
Humidity 55%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Estrela

Casa Pia

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

24 AttackIn forecast 13

27 DefenceIn forecast 25

24 Form indexContext 19

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack+18%

Defense risk−26%

Casa Pia

Attack+17%

Defense risk−9%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Estrela

Casa Pia

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.38

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

75% Scored inContext 25%

0% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.63 ShotsContext 9.63

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

33% On target shareContext 27%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.14

68% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 4%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.83

10.88 Shots allowedContext 15.25

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.13 BlocksContext 5.71

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

61% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 44%

412 PassesContext 343

345 Accurate passesContext 268

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.44

10.75 FoulsContext 12.13

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

70% Scored inContext 30%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.10 ShotsContext 9.60

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

34% On target shareContext 32%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

69% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 5%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.50 Shots allowedContext 15.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.40 BlocksContext 5.67

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

63% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 43%

384 PassesContext 327

317 Accurate passesContext 251

83% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.56

11.00 FoulsContext 12.60

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela DWDLL

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km513 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Casa Pia LDLWL

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Santa Clara0–11.1 xPts
W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct	13.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	513 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Casa Pia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Santa Clara (H) 0–1, 10 Oct

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela No reported absences

Casa Pia No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Casa Pia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Estrela wins0 draws2 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game2.17 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

20 Mar 2026Estrela4–0Casa Pia
1 Nov 2025Casa Pia3–5Estrela
9 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0Estrela
31 Aug 2024Estrela0–1Casa Pia
8 Mar 2024Estrela3–1Casa Pia
8 Oct 2023Casa Pia0–1Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	0.38
Conceded per game	1.88	2.13
Match goals	3.63	2.50	2.67
Over 1.5	88%	50%
Over 2.5	75%	38%	50%
Over 3.5	63%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	25%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	25%	75%
Games	8	8

	Estrela	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.50
Conceded per game	1.70	1.80
Match goals	3.30	2.30	2.67
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	50%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	4.00
Corners conceded	4.71	6.25
Match total	9.57	10.25	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	2.50	2.13
Match total	4.88	4.51	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Estrela	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	4.10
Corners conceded	5.56	6.40
Match total	9.78	10.50	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	4.90	4.90	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.