Rio Ave vs Famalicao – 25 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 25 · 18:00 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave 14th · 7 pts · 8 played LLDLW

VS— Compare

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Famalicao are the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rio Ave. Rio Ave have 14.1 days of rest, Famalicao 12.9 and have to travel 20 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel20 kmRest days14.1 · 12.9Matches / 14d0 · 1

Rio Ave35%

Draw27%

Famalicao38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.41

Rio Ave32%

Draw27%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

Rio Ave35%

Draw27%

Famalicao38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.41

Rio Ave28%

Draw26%

Famalicao46%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.58

Rio Ave36%

Draw26%

Famalicao38%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.46

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 34 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

18°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 39%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 90%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Famalicao 63% Both teams scored Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Rio Ave

Famalicao

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

18 AttackIn forecast 24

21 DefenceIn forecast 36

17 Form indexContext 30

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack+5%

Defense risk−6%

Famalicao

Attack+24%

Defense risk−17%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Rio Ave

Famalicao

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

38% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

7.63 ShotsContext 10.00

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

41% On target shareContext 33%

3.29 Shots in the boxContext 4.75

39% Box shareContext 47%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.40

16.38 Shots allowedContext 11.88

5.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38

3.75 BlocksContext 2.75

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

62% Save rateContext 59%

45% PossessionIn forecast 55%

363 PassesContext 472

300 Accurate passesContext 405

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.77

8.88 FoulsContext 11.63

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 15.25

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

7.90 ShotsContext 10.50

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

39% On target shareContext 31%

3.78 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

42% Box shareContext 48%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.57

16.60 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

4.30 BlocksContext 2.67

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

63% Save rateContext 62%

45% PossessionIn forecast 55%

362 PassesContext 465

298 Accurate passesContext 399

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.40 FoulsContext 10.90

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave LLDLW

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

W11 OctH · Nacional3–21.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Alverca0–11.0 xPts
D14 SepH · Estrela3–31.4 xPts
L6 SepA · Santa Clara0–40.9 xPts
L28 AugH · Sporting CP0–40.6 xPts

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel20 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct	12.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	20 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nacional (H) 3–2, 11 Oct

32Vitor Hugo

17M. Vrousai 39Gustavo Mancha 5A. Ntoi 20João Tomé

54G. Liavas 79M. Patricio

7Diogo Bezerra 19M. Sellouki 80S. Clemmensen

11Jalen Blesa

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave No reported absences

Famalicao No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.75

Famalicao · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Rio Ave	Famalicao
Nacional	W 3–2 H	W 4–0 A
Alverca	L 0–1 A	L 1–4 H
Estrela	D 3–3 H	D 2–2 A
Santa Clara	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 A
Sporting CP	L 0–4 H	D 1–1 H
Estoril	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Points	7 of 21 · 1.00 per game	7 of 21 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Rio Ave wins6 draws2 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.63 – 0.88 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 50%

1 Mar 2026Rio Ave0–0Famalicao
28 Sep 2025Famalicao0–0Rio Ave
10 Mar 2025Famalicao1–0Rio Ave
4 Oct 2024Rio Ave1–1Famalicao
16 Feb 2024Famalicao2–1Rio Ave
16 Sep 2023Rio Ave1–1Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.25
Conceded per game	2.13	1.38
Match goals	3.13	2.63	2.73
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	50%	38%
Both teams scored	25%	63%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	63%	25%
Games	8	8

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.10
Conceded per game	2.20	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.20	2.73
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	5.75
Corners conceded	6.13	3.88
Match total	9.88	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.38
Opponent cards	1.25	2.38
Match total	3.00	4.76	4.55
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	6.20
Corners conceded	6.11	3.90
Match total	10.00	10.10	8.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.10
Opponent cards	1.30	2.40
Match total	3.20	4.50	4.55
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.