Santa Clara
Attack−34%
Defense risk+76%
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 9 Mon, Oct 26 · 18:45
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Benfica are slight favourites.
Benfica are the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. Santa Clara have 16 days of rest, Benfica 4 and have to travel 1,445 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,445 kmRest days16 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 2
Santa Clara18%
Draw23%
Benfica60%
Santa Clara16%
Draw22%
Benfica62%
Santa Clara18%
Draw23%
Benfica60%
Santa Clara13%
Draw20%
Benfica67%
Santa Clara18%
Draw23%
Benfica59%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
20°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 72%
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 90%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Santa Clara and Benfica. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Benfica
+1.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.77
-
Trend
Benfica
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Benfica
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Santa Clara
8
Unbeaten in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Benfica
+1.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.77
-
Trend
Benfica
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Benfica
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Benfica
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Benfica
0.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
Santa ClaraBenfica
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
29
AttackIn forecast
81
53
DefenceIn forecast
81
73
Form indexContext
85
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack−9%
Defense risk−4%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Santa ClaraBenfica
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
2.79
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.52
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
88%
Scored inContext
100%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.13
ShotsContext
19.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.88
27%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.63
60%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.17
7.75
Shots allowedContext
7.63
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.83
1.63
BlocksContext
2.80
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
83%
Save rateContext
59%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
379
PassesContext
561
300
Accurate passesContext
492
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.15
13.25
FoulsContext
12.13
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
80%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
18.13
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.88
24%
On target shareContext
32%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
59%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.17
8.80
Shots allowedContext
9.88
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
2.10
BlocksContext
2.56
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
88%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
367
PassesContext
538
289
Accurate passesContext
472
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.16
12.50
FoulsContext
11.00
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Benfica
WWLWW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,445 km7,528 km in 14d
Schedule load22%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 4UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,445 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 7,528 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Last XI · not confirmed
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
Benfica
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
36João Palhinha
8F. Aursnes
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
11D. Lukébakio
22J. Durán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Benfica · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 3.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 A | W 7–0 A |
| Academico Viseu | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Santa Clara wins1 draws5 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 13 Feb 2026Santa Clara1–2Benfica
- 12 Sep 2025Benfica1–1Santa Clara
- 15 Feb 2025Santa Clara0–1Benfica
- 14 Sep 2024Benfica4–1Santa Clara
- 27 May 2023Benfica3–0Santa Clara
- 21 Jan 2023Santa Clara0–3Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.88 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 88% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Santa Clara | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 9.50 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 5.13 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Santa Clara | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.63 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Benfica8 games · scored 24 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
9
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
