Alverca vs Arouca – 24 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 24 · 15:30 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 8th · 11 pts · 8 played DLWWW

VS— Compare

Arouca 5th · 14 pts · 8 played WDLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alverca are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alverca. Alverca have 11.8 days of rest, Arouca 12.8 and have to travel 236 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel236 kmRest days11.8 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alverca48%

Draw26%

Arouca26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.14

Alverca41%

Draw27%

Arouca32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Alverca48%

Draw26%

Arouca26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.14

Alverca40%

Draw27%

Arouca33%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.28

Alverca49%

Draw25%

Arouca26%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.22

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

21°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0%
Wind 20 km/h
Humidity 50%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Alverca

Arouca

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

38 AttackIn forecast 28

42 DefenceIn forecast 37

64 Form indexContext 45

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack+4%

Defense risk−4%

Arouca

Attack−2%

Defense risk+2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Alverca

Arouca

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

88% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.50

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

34% On target shareContext 36%

7.38 Shots in the boxContext 6.25

59% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

12.13 Shots allowedContext 14.25

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.29 BlocksContext 3.75

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

71% Save rateContext 81%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

343 PassesContext 440

273 Accurate passesContext 372

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.63 FoulsContext 10.38

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.88

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.30

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

32% On target shareContext 35%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

60% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.80 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.00 BlocksContext 4.00

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

69% Save rateContext 79%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

350 PassesContext 439

281 Accurate passesContext 370

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.92

14.40 FoulsContext 11.00

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca DLWWW

Rest11.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km565 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W12 OctA · Famalicao4–10.9 xPts
W19 SepH · Rio Ave1–01.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Nacional3–11.3 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Braga1–21.0 xPts
D29 AugH · Santa Clara1–11.5 xPts

Arouca WDLDW

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel236 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W11 OctH · Estrela1–01.9 xPts
D19 SepA · Sporting CP2–20.4 xPts
L13 SepH · Santa Clara1–21.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Estoril0–01.4 xPts
W29 AugH · Maritimo2–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	11.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Oct	12.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	236 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	565 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	9.2	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Famalicao (A) 4–1, 12 Oct

31Matheus Mendes(G)

12Isaac James 21Sergi Gómez 14S. Baseya

55Francisco Chissumba 6D. Gui 35Rayan Lucas 20Diogo Spencer

22Figueiredo 19D. Camara 10Chiquinho

Arouca Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Estrela (H) 1–0, 11 Oct

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

18O. Lebedenko 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca No reported absences

Arouca No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.25

Arouca · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Alverca	Arouca
Santa Clara	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Sporting CP	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 A
Estrela	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
FC Porto	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Points	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Alverca wins0 draws1 Arouca wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

24 Apr 2026Alverca2–1Arouca
14 Dec 2025Arouca1–0Alverca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	1.38
Conceded per game	1.50	0.88
Match goals	3.13	2.25	2.75
Over 1.5	88%	63%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	38%	55%
Clean sheets	13%	50%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Alverca	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.70
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	2.80	2.60	2.75
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.13
Corners conceded	4.50	5.38
Match total	10.50	8.51	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	3.00
Opponent cards	1.88	3.00
Match total	4.26	6.00	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8

	Alverca	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	3.20
Corners conceded	4.63	5.40
Match total	10.26	8.60	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.80
Opponent cards	1.80	2.70
Match total	4.20	5.50	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.