Everton vs Brentford – 4 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 9th · 28 pts · 19 played WLLDW

2–4Full time

Brentford 10th · 27 pts · 19 played LDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Everton. Everton had 4.8 days of rest, Brentford 2.8 and had to travel 280 km.

Away travel280 kmRest days4.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Everton41%

Draw27%

Brentford33%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.29

Everton43%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

Everton42%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.26

Everton33%

Draw27%

Brentford40%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.45

Everton41%

Draw27%

Brentford32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 200

Team strength

Everton

Brentford

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

61 AttackIn forecast 73

66 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Brentford

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.47

1.05 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.37

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

63% Scored inContext 74%

42% Clean sheetsContext 21%

10.58 ShotsContext 9.84

3.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

29% On target shareContext 41%

7.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

68% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

13.74 Shots allowedContext 12.63

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.16

4.79 BlocksContext 4.47

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

69% Save rateContext 69%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

374 PassesContext 378

296 Accurate passesContext 298

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.21 FoulsContext 11.21

11.47 Fouls sufferedContext 8.94

1.95 Yellow cardsContext 1.95

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

70% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.10 ShotsContext 9.10

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

30% On target shareContext 40%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.56

67% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.20 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.40 BlocksContext 4.20

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

76% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 51%

365 PassesContext 421

286 Accurate passesContext 334

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.90 FoulsContext 10.80

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.67

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km395 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel280 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec	2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	280 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	395 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 42T. Iroegbunam

18J. Grealish 7D. McNeil 20T. Dibling

11T. Barry

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

2A. Hickey 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 8M. Jensen

9Thiago

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton-1.9 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Brentford+1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.56points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-3
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 1.11

Brentford · Away 0.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-7
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Everton	Brentford
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H	L 1–3 A
Burnley	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Bournemouth	W 1–0 A	W 4–1 H
Newcastle	L 1–4 H	W 3–1 H
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Fulham	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Tottenham	L 0–3 H	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
West Ham	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 H
Aston Villa	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 A
Brighton	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 A
Leeds	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	28 of 57 · 1.47 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Everton wins3 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.13 – 0.88 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

26 Feb 2025Brentford1–1Everton
23 Nov 2024Everton0–0Brentford
27 Apr 2024Everton1–0Brentford
23 Sep 2023Brentford1–3Everton
11 Mar 2023Everton1–0Brentford
27 Aug 2022Brentford1–1Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	1.47
Conceded per game	1.05	1.37
Match goals	2.11	2.84	2.75
Over 1.5	68%	84%
Over 2.5	32%	53%	52%
Over 3.5	11%	42%
Both teams scored	32%	58%	56%
Clean sheets	42%	21%
Failed to score	37%	26%
Games	19	19

	Everton	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	1.90	2.60	2.75
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.32	5.06
Corners conceded	5.16	5.00
Match total	9.48	10.06	9.87
Over 8.5	63% 12/19	67% 12/18
Over 9.5	47% 9/19	61% 11/18
Over 10.5	42% 8/19	56% 10/18
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.95
Opponent cards	1.68	1.95
Match total	3.68	3.90	3.80
Over 3.5	53% 10/19	58% 11/19
Over 4.5	42% 8/19	47% 9/19

	Everton	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.78
Corners conceded	5.10	5.67
Match total	9.60	10.45	9.87
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.30	3.70	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.67

Red cards0.15league 0.10

Cards 5+35%league 37%

Fouls21.0league 21.4

Penalties0.27league 0.20

Home wins35%league 46%

Everton13 with this referee

Record4-2-7 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 2

W15 Feb 25A · Crystal Palace2–11
L24 Aug 24A · Tottenham0–40
W21 Apr 24H · Nottingham Forest2–04
W16 Dec 23A · Burnley2–01
L30 Sep 23H · Luton1–20

Brentford8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 1

L30 Aug 25A · Sunderland1–22
W4 May 25H · Manchester United4–30
D14 Jan 25H · Manchester City2–20
W2 Dec 23H · Luton3–11
L6 May 23A · Liverpool0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.