Everton vs Burnley – 3 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 29 Tue, Mar 3 · 19:30 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 8th · 40 pts · 28 played DWLLW

2–0Full time

Burnley 19th · 19 pts · 28 played LLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Everton were clear favourites.

Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Everton. Everton had 3.2 days of rest, Burnley 3.2 and had to travel 65 km.

Away travel65 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Everton63%

Draw21%

Burnley16%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.95

Everton55%

Draw24%

Burnley20%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.00

Everton62%

Draw22%

Burnley16%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.97

Everton55%

Draw24%

Burnley21%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.07

Everton62%

Draw22%

Burnley16%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.93

Over 2.5 58% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeTim Robinson

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 126

Team strength

Everton

Burnley

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

61 AttackIn forecast 27

66 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Burnley

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

1.18 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.98

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

71% Scored inContext 68%

32% Clean sheetsContext 11%

10.96 ShotsContext 9.21

3.36 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.46

31% On target shareContext 32%

7.48 Shots in the boxContext 5.61

67% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.54 Shots allowedContext 16.50

4.26 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.75

4.36 BlocksContext 5.13

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.81

67% Save rateContext 64%

44% PossessionIn forecast 41%

380 PassesContext 375

302 Accurate passesContext 293

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.68

10.61 FoulsContext 9.93

11.82 Fouls sufferedContext 9.21

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.87

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.00 ShotsContext 9.90

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

33% On target shareContext 31%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

64% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 17%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.11

13.60 Shots allowedContext 17.60

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

3.60 BlocksContext 6.38

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

67% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

407 PassesContext 401

326 Accurate passesContext 325

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.90 FoulsContext 10.20

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km390 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Burnley

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel65 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Burnley
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	65 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	390 km	583 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	10.9	10.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 32J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 27I. Gueye

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 7D. McNeil

9Beto

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Burnley Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

5M. Estève 4J. Worrall 12B. Humphreys

23Lucas Pires 28H. Mejbri 16Florentino 2K. Walker

11J. Anthony 8L. Ugochukwu

9L. Foster

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Burnley Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton+1.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Burnley-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.14points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-6
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.36

Burnley · Away 0.64points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-9
Scored: 1.21
Conceded: 2.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Everton	Burnley
Newcastle	W 3–2 AL 1–4 H	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Manchester United	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A
Bournemouth	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Fulham	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	L 2–3 H
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 0–2 A
Leeds	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Wolves	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A	W 3–2 A
Brentford	L 2–4 H	L 3–4 HL 1–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Tottenham	L 0–3 H	D 2–2 HL 0–3 A
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	L 1–5 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 H	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 HL 2–3 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Points	39 of 81 · 1.44 per game	18 of 81 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Everton wins2 draws2 Burnley wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.00 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets43% · 14%

27 Dec 2025Burnley0–0Everton
6 Apr 2024Everton1–0Burnley
16 Dec 2023Burnley0–2Everton
6 Apr 2022Burnley3–2Everton
13 Sep 2021Everton3–1Burnley
13 Mar 2021Everton1–2Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.14
Conceded per game	1.18	2.00
Match goals	2.32	3.14	3.03
Over 1.5	71%	89%
Over 2.5	36%	54%	58%
Over 3.5	14%	39%
Both teams scored	46%	61%	54%
Clean sheets	32%	11%
Failed to score	29%	32%
Games	28	28

	Everton	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	2.20
Match goals	2.70	3.50	3.03
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.39	3.46
Corners conceded	5.04	5.93
Match total	9.43	9.39	10.01
Over 8.5	68% 19/28	54% 15/28
Over 9.5	43% 12/28	50% 14/28
Over 10.5	36% 10/28	36% 10/28
Cards
Cards	2.07	1.79
Opponent cards	1.82	1.29
Match total	3.89	3.08	3.91
Over 3.5	54% 15/28	43% 12/28
Over 4.5	46% 13/28	18% 5/28

	Everton	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	3.00
Corners conceded	4.78	5.40
Match total	9.34	8.40	10.01
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.20
Match total	4.50	3.60	3.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tim Robinson 126 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.39league 3.77

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls22.6league 21.5

Penalties0.15league 0.21

Home wins48%league 43%

Everton4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

W25 Jan 25A · Brighton1–04
D3 May 24A · Luton1–13
W7 Dec 23H · Newcastle3–03
D4 Nov 23H · Brighton1–14

Burnley6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L3 Jan 26A · Brighton0–24
W18 Oct 25H · Leeds2–02
L10 Feb 24A · Liverpool1–32
W25 Apr 23A · Blackburn1–05
W15 Mar 23A · Hull City3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.