FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
13th · 19 pts · 19 played
DLDDW
2–1Full time
FC St. Pauli
17th · 14 pts · 19 played
DLLDD
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 3.8 and had to travel 579 km.
Away travel579 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
FC Augsburg57%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli20%
FC Augsburg54%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli21%
FC Augsburg57%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli20%
FC Augsburg49%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli26%
FC Augsburg56%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 90
Team strength
FC AugsburgFC St. Pauli
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
72
AttackIn forecast
20
23
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgFC St. Pauli
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
68%
Scored inContext
58%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
12.21
ShotsContext
9.68
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
32%
On target shareContext
34%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.42
61%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.64
13.16
Shots allowedContext
11.16
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.95
4.35
BlocksContext
3.47
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
57%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
392
PassesContext
439
313
Accurate passesContext
348
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.16
FoulsContext
10.11
12.26
Fouls sufferedContext
9.95
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.42
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.60
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
7.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
34%
On target shareContext
32%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
64%
Box shareContext
55%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.90
BlocksContext
3.56
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
386
PassesContext
389
310
Accurate passesContext
295
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.60
FoulsContext
8.90
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel579 km567 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 579 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 113 km | 567 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
40N. Banks
31K. Schlotterbeck
34Arthur Chaves
27M. Wolf
8E. Rexhbeçaj
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
38M. Gregoritsch
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
15Tomoya Ando
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
20M. Rasmussen
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
26R. Jones
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC St. Pauli+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-7
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | L 0–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game | 11 of 54 · 0.61 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 FC Augsburg wins1 draws1 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025FC St. Pauli2–1FC Augsburg
- 1 Feb 2025FC St. Pauli1–1FC Augsburg
- 15 Sep 2024FC Augsburg3–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 2.58 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 53% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 53% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 42% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| FC Augsburg | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 9.56 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 9/19 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.68 | 1.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.84 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 3.36 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 12/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| FC Augsburg | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.30 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.60 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.73
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+47%league 39%
Fouls23.3league 21.0
Penalties0.18league 0.33
Home wins33%league 44%
FC Augsburg8 with this referee
Record1-4-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–02
- D24 Aug 24H · Werder Bremen2–23
- L9 Dec 23A · Werder Bremen0–22
- L16 Sep 23A · RB Leipzig0–30
- D9 Nov 22A · Union Berlin2–24
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L19 Sep 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–22
- W2 Nov 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg19 games · scored 22 · conceded 36
3
3
0-15
3
9
16-30
4
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
4
76-90
FC St. Pauli19 games · scored 17 · conceded 32
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
8
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
