FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg
15th · 14 pts · 16 played
LWLDL
1–1Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 22 pts · 16 played
LLWWD
FC Augsburg39.6%fair odds 2.53
Draw26.7%fair odds 3.74
Union Berlin33.7%fair odds 2.96
Expected goals1.44 – 1.32total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · Union Berlin → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.89
- 2–18.7%11.52
- 1–08.5%11.76
- 1–27.9%12.63
- 0–17.7%12.99
- 0–07.0%14.34
- 2–06.6%15.16
- 2–25.7%17.51
- 0–25.5%18.24
- 3–14.2%23.94
Winning margin
7.2%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 13.82
11.9%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 8.40
20.4%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 4.90
26.7%
Draw
fair 3.74
18.6%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 5.39
9.9%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 10.11
5.3%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 18.91
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
FC Augsburg goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Union Berlin goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 39.6% | 38.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Union Berlin win | 33.7% | 33.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 50.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.5% | 55.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.44 | 1.39 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.32 | 1.28 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win39.6%2.53
- Draw26.7%3.74
- Union Berlin win33.7%2.96
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw66.3%1.51
- Double chance FC Augsburg or Union Berlin73.3%1.36
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw60.4%1.65
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg54.0%1.85
- Draw no bet Union Berlin46.0%2.17
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.07
- Over 1.576.8%1.30
- Over 2.552.1%1.92
- Over 3.529.9%3.34
- Over 4.514.6%6.85
- Under 1.523.2%4.32
- Under 2.547.9%2.09
- Under 3.570.1%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.5%1.77
- No43.5%2.30
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- FC Augsburg win and yes19.7%5.08
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Union Berlin win and yes17.1%5.85
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.576.4%1.31
- FC Augsburg over 1.542.3%2.36
- FC Augsburg over 2.517.7%5.65
- Union Berlin over 0.573.2%1.37
- Union Berlin over 1.537.9%2.64
- Union Berlin over 2.514.7%6.82
- FC Augsburg clean sheet26.8%3.73
- Union Berlin clean sheet23.6%4.24
- FC Augsburg win to nil19.9%5.04
- Union Berlin win to nil16.6%6.01
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.519.1%5.22
- FC Augsburg −2.57.2%13.82
- Union Berlin +1.580.9%1.24
- Union Berlin +2.592.8%1.08
- Union Berlin −1.515.2%6.59
- FC Augsburg +1.584.8%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored149
Favourite won57.0%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.552
Over 2.5 called right63.8%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 45.1% | 40.4% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 54.8% | 57.5% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 65.2% | 79.2% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.3% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 86.7% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 129 of 149 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5405 | 0.5375 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 43.8% |
| Favourite won | 58.9% | 57.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 129 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 149 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.