FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
15th · 14 pts · 16 played
LWLDL
1–1Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 22 pts · 16 played
LLWWD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Union Berlin were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 37). FC Augsburg had 4.2 days of rest, Union Berlin 5.2 and had to travel 495 km.
Away travel495 kmRest days4.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Augsburg40%
Draw27%
Union Berlin34%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw27%
Union Berlin34%
FC Augsburg40%
Draw27%
Union Berlin34%
FC Augsburg32%
Draw27%
Union Berlin41%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw27%
Union Berlin34%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 64
Team strength
FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
72
AttackIn forecast
42
23
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
63%
Scored inContext
69%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.19
ShotsContext
12.13
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
31%
On target shareContext
30%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
61%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.19
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
4.21
BlocksContext
3.79
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
56%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
399
PassesContext
311
320
Accurate passesContext
225
80%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.69
FoulsContext
12.44
11.94
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
28%
On target shareContext
29%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
57%
Box shareContext
74%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.70
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.33
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
50%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
413
PassesContext
337
330
Accurate passesContext
247
80%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.30
FoulsContext
11.90
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km895 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel495 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 495 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 895 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
8E. Rexhbeçaj
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
13A. Schäfer
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union Berlin+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.88
Union Berlin · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | L 2–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | W 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 14 of 48 · 0.88 per game | 22 of 48 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 FC Augsburg wins3 draws1 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.38 – 0.63
Over 2.525%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 13%
- 17 May 2025FC Augsburg1–2Union Berlin
- 15 Jan 2025Union Berlin0–2FC Augsburg
- 12 Apr 2024FC Augsburg2–0Union Berlin
- 25 Nov 2023Union Berlin1–1FC Augsburg
- 6 May 2023FC Augsburg1–0Union Berlin
- 9 Nov 2022Union Berlin2–2FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 2.94 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 56% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| FC Augsburg | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.69 | 9.27 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 7/16 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 2.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.88 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 11/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| FC Augsburg | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.11 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 3.79
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+33%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 21.1
Penalties0.25league 0.33
Home wins48%league 46%
FC Augsburg8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D20 Apr 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–02
- W25 Jan 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–11
- W4 Oct 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–12
- D25 Nov 23A · Union Berlin1–12
- W6 May 23H · Union Berlin1–02
Union Berlin7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L10 May 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–32
- D25 Nov 23H · FC Augsburg1–12
- L6 May 23A · FC Augsburg0–12
- W1 Apr 23H · VfB Stuttgart3–01
- W4 Feb 23H · FSV Mainz 052–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg16 games · scored 17 · conceded 32
3
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Union Berlin16 games · scored 22 · conceded 25
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
