Genk vs SC Freiburg – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 20:00 Cegeka Arena, Genk

Genk

1–0Full time

SC Freiburg

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Genk were slight favourites.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genk. Genk had 5 days of rest, SC Freiburg 5.2 and had to travel 371 km.

Away travel371 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Genk46%

Draw25%

SC Freiburg29%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.31

Genk35%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.38

Genk45%

Draw25%

SC Freiburg30%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.33

Genk38%

Draw26%

SC Freiburg36%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.47

Genk45%

Draw26%

SC Freiburg30%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.29

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genk)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 156

Team strength

Genk

SC Freiburg

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

46 AttackIn forecast 63

50 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genk

SC Freiburg

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.80 ShotsContext 11.40

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

43% On target shareContext 35%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

75% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.57

12.20 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.40 BlocksContext 5.44

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

72% Save rateContext 73%

55% PossessionIn forecast 42%

492 PassesContext 338

413 Accurate passesContext 270

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.83

8.70 FoulsContext 9.20

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genk

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km164 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Freiburg

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel371 km487 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genk	SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Mar	5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	371 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	164 km	487 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.7	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genk Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

26T. Lawal(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 44J. Kongolo 77Z. El Ouahdi

21I. Bangoura

32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 38D. Heymans 8B. Heynen 20K. Karetsas

23A. Bibout

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

30C. Günter 43B. Ogbus 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu

44J. Manzambi 6P. Osterhage

32V. Grifo 14Y. Suzuki 19J. Beste

31I. Matanović

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genk Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Freiburg Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genk+1.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
SC Freiburg-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Genk · Home No home games yet this season.

SC Freiburg · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Genk	SC Freiburg	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.01
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	58%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Genk	SC Freiburg	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.10
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	3.40	2.50	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genk	SC Freiburg	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Genk	SC Freiburg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.20
Corners conceded	5.20	5.60
Match total	10.20	9.80	7.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.30
Match total	2.90	3.80	4.75
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 156 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 4.25

Red cards0.13league 0.50

Cards 5+37%league 75%

Fouls21.8league 26.8

Penalties0.23league 0.25

Home wins39%league 25%

Genk

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Freiburg

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.